E How Will Cisco's Stock Move After Earnings?

Cisco (CSCO) is expected to report earnings on Wednesday, February 15th, after market close. The whisper number is $0.56, in-line with the analysts' estimate and showing neutral confidence from the WhisperNumber community. Whispers range from a low of $0.50 to a high of $0.57. A year ago the company reported earnings of $0.57. Cisco has a 58% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 41 of the 70 earnings reports for which we have data).

Earnings history:

  •  Beat whisper: 41 qtrs
  •  Met whisper: 2 qtrs
  •  Missed whisper: 27 qtrs

Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we analyze what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.

The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe:

The strongest price movement of +1.6% comes within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -0.8% within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average post earnings price move is 'as expected' (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see weakness) when the company reports earnings.

The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:

The company has reported earnings ahead of the whisper number in all of the past four quarters with a whisper number. In the comparable quarter last year the company reported earnings five cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 9.7% gain in five trading days. Last quarter the company reported earnings one cent ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 1.7% gain in twenty trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be (on average within thirty trading days) an 'as expected' price reactor when the company reports earnings.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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