Heat Biologics (NASDAQ:HTBX)

Heat Biologics surged as much as 30% on Friday on increased investor optimism for trial results set to come out within the next few weeks. That is because the company is going to release results from its bladder cancer study at a medical meeting on November 30.

These results will be for a phase 2 trial, therefore there is a lot of potential for this to be categorized as a major catalyst for HTBX. That is that it will prove whether the company’s technology works in cancer. This is something that should be watched by traders because HTBX traded 20 million shares on Friday.

That is amazing considering that it was a shortened market day for the Nasdaq closing at 1:00 p.m. Eastern time. This is especially true since the average volume for the stock trades only at 1 million shares. Having a stock trade at 20 times the normal average volume indicates that there are a lot of eyes on the stock and this is something traders can take advantage of.

HTBX Bladder Cancer Results

Heat Biologics is expected to release its bladder cancer results on November 30 at a medical meeting. That will mark a significant inflection point for the company and its stock. The candidate in a phase 2 trial for bladder cancer is known as HS-410. These results will be presented at the Society of Urological Oncology AnnualMeeting.

The trial will be done with HS-410 in combination with BCG or alone against a placebo compound. One thing to note is that BCG is being combined with the HTBX HS-410 drug. The reason for that is that BCG is used as a treatment for non-invasive bladder cancer.

What’s odd is that the BCG drug was first developed to treat patients with tuberculosis. Still, it is good to see that such a drug is being used as standard of care until a new treatment option comes into play for these patients.

This is an important catalyst because it will either be a make or break for the stock. If the results come out negative then the share price could drop by 50% or more from the current price. However, a positive result could send the stock much higher.

Backup Play

HTBX is heavily reliant on the bladder cancer data, but if doesn’t turn out well then there is a backup drug. That drug is HS-110, but there is a big catch. The catch is that HS-110 is being combined with nivolumab or OPDIVO to treat patients with non-small cell lung cancer — NSCLC.

This combination is a partnership in which HTBX combines its drug together with Bristol-Myers drug. The phase 1b trial is known as the TURGA trial and results will be presented on December 6.

This data will be shown at the International Society for the Study of Lung Cancer Annual Meeting. Even though this is an early study, any significant improvement in patients taking this combo will be met with positive stock price movement.

Looking Forward

The HTBX stock closed at $2.50 per share on Friday, but should see additional movement before results are read out. Monday will more than likely see some additional gains, but traders should be cautious going into Tuesday one day before the results are presented at the conference.

It would be wise to take some profits off the table after such a huge runup. There is no guarantee that the results will be good, even though it is being presented at a medical conference. In addition, the HTBX stock has gained 75% over the last 5 trading days meaning there will be massive profit taking occurring over the next few days.

The good news is that with positive results in a multi-billion dollar market, the stock should head higher. Considering that HTBX trades with a market cap of only $59.47 million it will gap up on any positive trial results.

[Image Courtesy of Pixabay]