This week I'm seeking a prestigious and long-term dividend-paying stock from the consumer cyclical sector. 

That cyclicals sector includes twenty-eight industries ranging from Advertising Agencies to Apparel, Autos, Broadcasting, Department Stores, Gambling, Leisure, Lodging, Packaging, Personal Services, Shoes, Restaurants, Rubber, Recreational Vehicles, Plastics, Textiles, and all such consumer aimed enterprises.

Today I'm reviewing a mid-cap recreational vehicle firm named Harley-Davidson Inc. Its trading ticker symbol is HOG. 

Harley-Davidson Inc produces and sells heavyweight motorcycles, as well as offers motorcycle parts, accessories, and related services. It operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products, and Financial Services.

The Motorcycles & Related Products segment designs, manufactures and sells at wholesale on-road Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, general merchandise, and related services. 

This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific

The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floor plan and open account financing of motorcycles, and motorcycle parts and accessories; and retail financing services,as well as motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses the Harley-Davidson brand to third-party financial institutions. 

The company was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

I use three key data points to gauge the value of any dividend equity or fund like Harley-Davidson Inc.(HOG): 

(1) Price

(2) Dividends

(3) Returns

Besides those three, four more keys will finally unlock an equity or fund in which to invest.

But those first three primary keys, best tell whether a company has made, is making, and will make money. 

HOG Price

Harley's price per share was $45.21 at yesterday's market close. A year ago its price was $48.14 for a decline of $2.93 per share.  

Assuming Harley's price will trade in the range of $40 to $60 next year, Harley's current $45.21 price could recover to $48.21 by late-September, 2019. 

HOG Dividends

Harley's most recent quarterly dividend was $0.37 declared September 5th and payable September 28th. That dividend was increased from $0.365 last March.

At this most recent $0.37 quarterly pay rate, Harley's annual dividend is calculated at $1.48 yielding 3.3% at yesterday's closing $45.21 price.

Gains For SIX?

Adding the $1.48 estimated annual dividend to my $3.00 recovery price gain for Harley makes a $4.48 gross annual per share gain, which is reduced by the cost to trade the shares.  

 A little under $1,000.00 invested today at the $45.21 recent price buys 22 Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) shares. 

A $10 broker fee paid half at purchase and half at sale costs $0.45 per share, subtracting that $0.45 brokerage cost from the estimated $4.48 gross gain leaves a net gain of $4.03 X 22 shares = $88.66 or a nearly 9% net gain on a $994.62 investment.

Therefore, Harley-Davidson Inc., whose trading ticker symbol is HOG, now shows a possible 9% net gain including a 3.3% dividend yield. 

Twenty brokers cover this stock:

Three say "buy" HOG.

Two say HOG will "outperform" its peers.

Fourteen say HOG is a stock to "hold".

One says HOG will "underperform".

None say "sell' the stock.

Thus, the analyst consensus recommendation number is 2.65 or "hold".

The median price target set by those twenty brokers is$0.64 under recovery $48.21 price target for HOG. 

So, you could look at all these various numbers this way, Harley-Davidson Inc., whose trading ticker symbol is HOG,has made money, is making money, and could net a 9% net annual gain including a 3.3% dividend yield. It could be more, it could be less.

The above speculation is based on past year performance. Actual results remain to be seen. Those results will determine if Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) is worth your time and money.