Dunkin' Brands Drops After Revenue Miss Leads To Guidance Cut

Shares of Dunkin' Brands (DNKN) fell in early trading after the company's quarterly revenue fell shy of estimates, hurt by lower restaurant openings and a decline in Baskin-Robbins U.S. comparable sales.

QUARTERLY EARNINGS: For the third quarter, Dunkin' Donuts parent Dunkin' Brands reported adjusted earnings per share of 60c, slightly beating analysts' consensus estimates of 59c. However, Dunkin's revenue of $207.1M missed estimates calling for $214.4M, with management citing a decrease in sales at company-operated restaurants driven by a net decrease in the number of company-operated restaurants, a decrease in franchise fees driven by declines in gross openings and renewal income, as well as a decrease in sales of ice cream and other products primarily to the Middle East. For the quarter, Dunkin' Donuts U.S. same-store sales increased 2%, but sales at U.S. Baskin-Robbins stores fell 0.9%. CFO Paul Carbone noted that the sale of its remaining company-operated restaurants drove a decline in revenues in Q3, but noted that "We are now 100% franchised." Dunkin' Brands franchisees and licensees opened 115 net new restaurants globally in Q3, including 56 net new Dunkin' Donuts U.S. locations, 45 net new Baskin-Robbins International locations, 11 net new Dunkin' Donuts International locations and 3 net new Baskin-Robbins U.S. locations.

GUIDANCE: Looking ahead, Dunkin' backed its fiscal year 2016 adjusted EPS view of $2.20-$2.22, but cut its revenue growth view to about 2% from 3%-5%, with the company citing weaker-than-expected sales of ice cream products related to its Baskin-Robbins International segment. The company continues to see Dunkin' Donuts U.S. SSS flat to up 2% for the year, Baskin-Robbins U.S. SSS growth "slightly positive," as compared to previous guidance of 1%-3% growth. The company also expects Dunkin' Donuts U.S. net development will be at the low end of its 430-460 net new restaurant guidance, and still believes Baskin-Robbins U.S. will add 5-10 net new restaurants for the year. The company still sees opening about 200 net new restaurants across the two brands internationally.

COMMENTARY: On its quarterly earnings conference call, Dunkin' Brands noted the "volatile" quick service restaurant industry, but said cold brew has been its "most successful product launch this century." In a move to position Dunkin' Donuts U.S. for growth, the company said it recently brought in an outside consulting group "to help us ensure that we're on the right path." Dunkin' said it will continue to look to return cash to shareholders going forward.

OTHERS TO WATCH: Others that compete with Dunkin' in the coffee and breakfast segments of the fast-service space include McDonald's (MCD), Starbucks (SBUX) and Burger King and Tim Hortons parent Restaurant Brands (QSR).

PRICE ACTION: Dunkin' Brands declined about 2.75% to $49.60 in early trading, but shares are still up over 16% year-to-date at time of writing.

Disclosure: None.

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