Disney Rallies After 'Rogue One' Debut Draws Bullish Analyst Calls

Shares of Disney (DIS) are rallying after this weekend's $155M debut of "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story," the first in the company's planned series of Star Wars spinoffs. Wall Street analysts cheered the news, with Merrill Lynch adding the stock to its "US 1" list on the outsize opening and likely future strength from upcoming blockbusters and theme park expansions.

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MERRILL ADDS DISNEY TO U.S. FAVORITES: Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Cohen and team added Disney to the firm's US 1 list after this weekend's "Rogue One" opening, arguing that the stock is "well positioned" for outperformance due to growth in its international parks; strength in U.S. parks aided by improving consumer confidence as well as the upcoming Avatar Land and Toy Story Land expansions; "stable to low growth" in its networks business, buoyed by new over-the-top services; a "solid" outlook for its film segment, with "blockbuster-level visibility" from upcoming releases including "Guardians of the Galaxy 2"; significant capital return programs; and a potential corporate tax cut under Donald Trump. The analyst concedes that shares have been pressured by ESPN numbers and near-term comp fears, but says the bar for 2017 is now lower while overhangs related to NBA fees and distortions to year-over-year comparisons from Disney's last Star Wars blockbuster are "nearly" behind the company. Net-net, the media giant offers an "increasingly solid" pipeline of catalysts over the next several years - including the aforementioned park upgrades and expected box office successes - and Cohen also highlights Disney's under-levered balance sheet and the potential it offers for capital returns or accretive acquisitions. She maintains a Buy rating and $125 price objective on the shares.

PIPER RAISES ROGUE ONE ESTIMATES: Noting that "Rogue One" topped his $125M domestic box office estimate, Piper Jaffray's Stan Meyers said he expects a "strong performance" through February given solid reception by both critics and audiences, and he sees the film settling in the $425M-475M range domestically as compared to his previous $350M forecast. Meyers also ups his global outlook for "Rogue One," predicting gross sales north of $1.2B and a net revenue contribution in excess of $1B. The analyst keeps an Overweight rating and $115 target on the stock.

PRICE ACTION: Shares of Disney are up nearly 2% to $105.92 in afternoon trading.

 

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