MON Sector Strength - TUE Rates - WED Medium-Term - THU Commodities Currencies - FRI Sentiment - SAT Longer-Term 

The Longer-Term Outlook

The Semiconductors hold the key to this bull market, in my opinion. They could be topping... but don't count them out until they really do break down.

The ECRI Index is now at such a low level that you have to be cautious about stocks. The ECRI has made it clear that they think an economic slowdown is coming in the months ahead. 

I am also a bit worried that the indications of an economic slowdown will be in the headlines during the August to October time frame which is during the market's traditional season slow-down. And, side note, I am still worried about Russian-related headlines coming during that time frame as well.

Don't get too bearish. The advance/ declines are solidly confirming the new highs of the NASDAQ index.

The yield curve and the unemployment rate are fairly good indicators during a bull market. Wait for an inverted yield curve or a break down below the moving averages as signs that the bull market is ending.

Outlook Summary:

The long-term outlook is cautious. The ECRI index points to an economic slowdown.
The medium-term trend is up as of May-10. Sentiment indicates caution.
The short-term trend is up as of Jul-06.Watching for signs of a short-term top.

The medium-term trend for bond prices is up as of Jun-19 (yields lower, prices higher).

Investing Themes:

Technology

Medical Products

Cyber Security

Payment Processors

Small and Micro Caps 

Gaming 

Strategy:

• Buy large cap stocks and ETFs at the lows of the medium or short-term trends.
• Buy small cap growth stocks on breaks to new highs in the early stages of short-term up trends.
• Stop buying when the short-term trend is at the top of the range.
• Take partial profits when the uptrend starts to struggle at the highs.
• Never invest based on personal politics.