Best Stocks Below Their Graham Number

One popular approach to investing based on Benjamin Graham’s methods is to use the so-called “Graham Number.”  There are some important differences between the Graham Number and the Graham Formula, but using the Graham Number is definitely useful even if the investor only uses it as a screening tactic.

I’ve selected the best companies reviewed by ModernGraham which trade below their Graham Number.  The companies selected all are found suitable for the Defensive Investor and/or the Enterprising Investor, and have been valued as undervalued based on the ModernGraham valuation model.  Further, the overall screen found 22 companies meeting these criteria, and the full list can be found near the end of this article; however, to cut down on the length of the post, I’ve selected the ten which trade furthest below their Graham Number.

Defensive Investors are defined as investors who are not able or willing to do substantial research into individual investments, and therefore need to select only the companies that present the least amount of risk. Enterprising Investors, on the other hand, are able to do substantial research and can select companies that present a moderate (though still low) amount of risk. Each company suitable for the Defensive Investor is also suitable for Enterprising Investors.

These companies have demonstrated strong financial positions through passing the rigorous requirements of the ModernGraham Investor and show potential for capital growth based on their current price in relation to intrinsic value.  As such, these graham number stocks may be a great investment if they prove to be suitable for your portfolio after your own additional research.

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL)

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.19 in 2012 to an estimated $4.51 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.7% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $82.44. The company pays a dividend of $0.86 per share, for a yield of 1.6% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 11.91, which was below the industry average of 16.56, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. (See the full valuation)

Metlife Inc (MET)

Metlife Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.37 in 2012 to an estimated $4.04 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.75% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Metlife Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $78.35. The company pays a dividend of $1.55 per share, for a yield of 2.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.01, which was below the industry average of 16.56, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. (See the full valuation)

 

Citigroup Inc (C)

Citigroup Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-2.31 in 2012 to an estimated $4.1 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.16% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price. (See the full valuation)

C charts July 2016

 

Equity Residential (EQR)

Equity Residential qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.15 in 2012 to an estimated $5.79 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.39% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Equity Residential revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $90.07. The company pays a dividend of $2.11 per share, for a yield of 3.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 11.29, which was below the industry average of 34.03, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-24.85. (See the full valuation)

 

Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)

Capital One Financial Corp. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.15 in 2012 to an estimated $7.13 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.05% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price. (See the full valuation)

COF charts July 2016

 

Navient Corp (NAVI)

Navient Corp is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.63 in 2012 to an estimated $2.39 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.25% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Navient Corp revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $21.98. The company pays a dividend of $0.64 per share, for a yield of 4.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 6.01, which was below the industry average of 19.87, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. (See the full valuation)

NAVI charts August 2016

 

Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)

Lincoln National Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.04 in 2012 to an estimated $5.16 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.12% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price. (See the full valuation)

LNC charts May 2016

 

Baxter International Inc (BAX)

Baxter International Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.6 in 2012 to an estimated $5.21 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.38% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Baxter International Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $56.99. The company pays a dividend of $0.48 per share, for a yield of 1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 9.25, which was below the industry average of 40.07, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-1.18. (See the full valuation)

BAX charts August 2016

 

AFLAC Incorporated (AFL)

AFLAC Incorporated qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.72 in 2012 to an estimated $6.27 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.58% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into AFLAC Incorporated revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $87.87. The company pays a dividend of $1.62 per share, for a yield of 2.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 11.66, which was below the industry average of 16.56, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. (See the full valuation)

AFL charts August 2016

 

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD)

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.17 in 2012 to an estimated $1.98 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.4% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Starwood Property Trust, Inc. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $27.64. The company pays a dividend of $1.92 per share, for a yield of 8.6%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 11.3, which was below the industry average of 34.03, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. (See the full valuation)

STWD charts August 2016

 

The Full List

Clicking on the company name will take you to the company’s latest valuation.

For the investor type, a “D” indicates the company is suitable for the Defensive Investor, an “E” indicates the company is suitable for the Enterprising Investor, and an “S” indicates the company is considered speculative at this time.

Ticker  Name with Link Investor Type Latest Valuation Date MG Value Recent Price Price as a percent of Value PEmg Ratio Div. Yield
AFL AFLAC Incorporated D 8/7/2016 $69.41 2.33%
AHL Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited E 12/13/2016 $53.40 1.61%
AIG American International Group Inc E 8/25/2016 $66.30 1.81%
ARW Arrow Electronics, Inc. E 7/3/2016 $71.78 0.00%
BAC Bank of America Corp E 7/14/2016 $22.66 0.88%
BAX Baxter International Inc D 8/16/2016 $44.72 1.07%
C Citigroup Inc E 7/19/2016 $59.75 0.33%
COF Capital One Financial Corp. E 7/6/2016 $89.67 1.78%
DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. E 8/14/2016 $28.04 1.07%
EQR Equity Residential D 8/21/2016 $64.05 3.29%
LEN Lennar Corporation E 11/19/2016 $43.42 0.37%
LNC Lincoln National Corporation E 5/20/2016 $66.39 1.66%
MET Metlife Inc E 12/13/2016 $54.37 2.85%
MNST Monster Beverage Corporation E 7/27/2016 $44.50 0.00%
NAVI Navient Corp E 8/31/2016 $16.37 3.91%
PHM PulteGroup, Inc. E 7/18/2016 $18.83 1.81%
PVH PVH Corp D 8/14/2016 $91.98 0.16%
RF Regions Financial Corp E 6/27/2016 $14.20 1.69%
SANM Sanmina Corp E 12/5/2016 $35.95 0.00%
STI SunTrust Banks, Inc. E 8/25/2016 $55.27 1.74%
STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. E 8/25/2016 $21.90 8.77%
TRV Travelers Companies Inc D 12/1/2016 $121.60 1.60%

 

Disclaimer: The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing those holdings within the next 72 hours. ...

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