Analysts Bullish On Netflix Into 2017 As Apple Said Developing TV Shows

Wall Street analysts have been weighing in on Netflix's (NFLX) 2017 prospects in recent days after the stock struggled to beat the market last year, with Morgan Stanley forecasting accelerating subscriber growth and JPMorgan expecting a "cleaner" investment thesis for the new year. The bullish calls come amid ongoing evolution in the TV and media industry which has, among other things, reportedly driven Apple (AAPL) to dip its toes into original content production and spurred speculation of Disney (DIS) launching a bid for Netflix, which Credit Suisse this week called unlikely.

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MORGAN STANLEY SEES SUBSCRIBER ACCELERATION: Morgan Stanley's Benjamin Swinburne reiterated an Overweight rating on Netflix while raising his price target to $150 from $130 on Thursday. The analyst challenges consensus expectations and calls for U.S. and international subscriber additions to accelerate in 2017, particularly in the second and third quarter, with Swinburne citing reduced churn as the "un-grandfathering" issue falls off; the company's continued commitment to original programming, which appears "highly correlated" with engagement; recent set-top box distribution partnerships with Liberty Global (LBTYA) and Comcast (CMCSA), whose "X1" could become North America's platform of choice; and the newly-implemented ability to download certain Netflix content, which should be particularly appreciated by emerging market customers often subject to Internet data caps.

JPMORGAN SEES 'CLEANER' 2017: JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth reiterated Netflix as his number two large-cap Internet pick, saying Wednesday that the stock is set up for a "cleaner story" in 2017 with pricing friction behind it and original content nearly doubling to over 1,000 hours. The analyst argues that both U.S. and foreign subscriber additions "could" accelerate versus 2016, adding that, while he doesn't view Netflix as a seller, the company remains a "highly strategic asset."

CREDIT SUISSE SAYS DISNEY TAKEOUT UNLIKELY: Credit Suisse's Omar Sheikh argued Tuesday that it's "hard to justify" an acquisition of Netflix by Disney. The analyst explains that improving industry trends have eased the strategic pressure on Disney to buy a distributor and the hypothetical deal's dilution to financial performance "would be prohibitive" at Netflix's current levels. That said, Sheikh concedes that the AT&T (T)-Time Warner (TWX) merger, continued growth in over-the-top services, and looming sports rights renewals in 2021-2022 mean that simply maintaining Disney's current structure is "not risk-free" over the long term and will continue to spur debate on potential strategic moves.

APPLE MOVES INTO ORIGINAL CONTENT: The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday morning that Apple plans to develop a "significant" new business in original TV shows and movies. Sources quoted by the publication noted that the programming would be available to subscribers of Apple's music streaming service, adding that the company has told Hollywood executives that it hopes to launch by the end of 2017. The Journal noted that, given the initiative's relatively limited scope, "it doesn't appear" Apple is setting up to spend on the level necessary to directly compete with Netflix, Amazon (AMZN) and other names in the space, and is instead looking to gain an edge against music service Spotify.

PRICE ACTION: Shares of Netflix are down 0.5% to $129.80 in afternoon trading after hitting all-time highs earlier this month.

 

Disclosure: None.

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