The Q4 earnings season has turned out to be fairly good. Not only is growth on track to be the highest in two years, but total earnings for the quarter are also on track to be a new quarterly record.

Please recall that earnings growth turned positive only in 2016 Q3, having declined in each of the preceding 5 quarters, as the chart below of year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 index shows.

Importantly, the positive Q4 growth isn’t a result of easy comparisons, but actually a function of strong gains in actual earnings. In fact, the overall tally of Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 index is on track to reach an all-time record for the index, surpassing the previous record achieved in 2014 Q4. The chart below shows the quarterly earnings totals for index, contrasting the highlighted Q4 tally with actual results from the last 8 quarters and expected tallies in the coming 4 quarters.

As you can see, this record isn’t expected to last very long, with growth expected to ramp up notably in the coming quarters.

One other positive for this earnings season is the relatively modest negative revisions to current-quarter (2017 Q1) estimates; they have come down, but not by as much as has historically been the case. The chart below shows evolution of Q1 estimates since the start of the period.

Q4 Scorecard (as of February 3, 2017)

We now have Q4 results from 275 S&P 500 members, or 55% of the index’s total membership. With 84 index members on deck to report results next week, we will have seen Q4 results from 71.8% of the index’s total membership by the end of next week.

Total earnings for these 275 index members are up +6.9% on +4.2% higher revenues, with 68% beating EPS estimates and 54.5% coming ahead of top-line expectations.

The table below provides the current Q4 scorecard

The charts below provide a comparison of the results thus far with what we have seen from this same group of 275 S&P 500 members in other recent periods.

As you can see, the Q4 growth pace is notably tracking above what we had seen from the same group of 275 index members in other recent periods. But positive surprises (right-hand chart above) are tracking on the low side relative to historical periods, particularly on the earnings front. The 68% proportion of Q4 companies beating EPS estimates compares to 76.7% in the preceding quarter, 74.5% as the 4-quarter average and 72.7% as the 12-quarter average. Positive revenue surprises are tracking below what we had seen from the same group of companies in Q3, but are roughly in-line with historical periods.

The chart below compares the proportion of companies reporting Q4 results that are beating both EPS and revenue estimates with what this same group of companies had reported in other recent periods.

Standout Sectors

Sectors with strong growth and better than expected results (earnings & revenues) include the Finance, Construction, Technology, and Basic Materials. Positive surprises for all of these sectors are tracking above the index level.

Finance: With results from 74.1% of the sector’s market cap in the S&P 500 index already out, total earnings for the sector are up +12.1% from the same period last year on +4.7% higher revenues, with +70.8% beating EPS estimates and +55.4% beating top-line estimates.

This is better growth performance than we have seen from the sector in other recent periods, as the comparison charts below show. Please note that positive surprises are as hard to come by in the Finance sector as they are elsewhere.

Strong Finance sector growth is a big driver of the aggregate growth performance for the S&P 500 index as a whole. Excluding the Finance sector, the Q4 growth pace still compares favorably with other recent periods, but a lot less so, as the right-hand chart below shows.

Technology: For the Technology sector, we now have Q4 results from 84% of the sector’s total market cap. Total earnings for these companies are up +7.4% from the same period last year on +5.4% higher revenues, with 71.1% beating EPS estimates and 78.9% beating revenue estimates.

This is better earnings growth than we have seen from this same group of Tech companies in Q3 or the preceding four quarters, but is about in-line with the 12-quarter average. Revenue growth, on the other hand, is tracking above historical periods. The revenue outperformance is visible in terms of positive surprises as well, with the proportion of Tech sector positive surprises notably tracking above Q3, the 4-quarter and 12-quarter averages, as you can see in the right-hand side chart. Earnings surprises (green bars in the right-hand chart) are tracking below historical periods, as is the case with other sectors as well.

Key Reports for the Week of February 6th

We have almost 500 companies reporting results this week, including 84 S&P 500 members. At the end of this week, we will have seen Q4 results from 359 S&P 500 members or 71.8% of the index’s total membership.  

Monday – 2/6/2017: We have 56 companies reporting results today, including 10 S&P 500 members, with Hasbro (HAS) and Tyson Foods (TSN) as the notable reports today, both in the morning.

Tuesday – 2/07/2017: On a busy reporting docket, we have more than 220 companies coming out with quarterly results, including 27 S&P 500 members. General Motors (GM) and Michael Kors (KORS) are the notable reports in the morning, while Disney (DIS) and Gilead Sciences (GILD) will report after the market’s close.

GM shares are up +26.6% over the past 12 months vs. +18.1% gain for the S&P 500 index and +19.5% gain for the Zacks Auto sector (Ford is up only +8.7%). The company is expected to earn $1.13 in earnings on $42.2 billion in revenues vs. $1.39 in earnings on $39.6 billion in revenues in the year-earlier period.

Disney is expected to report $1.47 in earnings on $15.3 billion in revenues, which compare to $1.63 on $15.24 billion in revenues in the year-earlier period. Estimates have come down a bit, with the current $1.47 EPS estimate down $1.49 a week ago and $1.56 three months back.

Disney shares struggled last year on concerns about the long-term growth outlook for the ESPN franchise in the current chord cutting and streaming media environment, but that has turned around over the last few months. It was up +15.6% over the past 12  months vs. +24.7% for the Zacks Media industry in that same time period. Over the last three months, however, Disney shares have outperformed the Zacks Media Industry, up +19.3% vs. +16.6%. Given the positive stock price momentum into this earnings release, the market seems to be looking for a perfect release from the company; anything less than perfect will likely see the stock losing ground in a major way.

Wednesday – 2/08/2017: We have more than 130 companies reporting results today, including 17 S&P 500 members. Whole Foods (WFM) and Yum Brands (YUM) are the notable reports today, both after the market’s close.

Whole Foods shares have been struggling for a while now, with the company finding it hard to face the competitive challenge from the traditional supermarkets and discounters. The stock was up +2% over the past 12 months vs. +18.1% for the S&P 500 index. The company is expected to earn $0.40 in EPS on $4.99 billion in revenues vs. $0.46 on $4.83 billion in revenues in the year-earlier period.

Thursday – 2/09/2017: On a busy reporting day with more than 300 companies reporting Q4 results, including 25 S&P 500 members (16 in the morning & 9 after the market’s close), the notable reports are from Coke (KO) and Twitter (TWTR) in the morning and NVIDIA (NVDA) and Expedia (EXPD) after the close.

Semiconductor stocks have all been strong performers over the past year, but NVIDIA has literally been red hot. The stock is up +305.5% over the past 12 months vs. +57.3% for the Zacks Semiconductor industry and +19.2% for the Zacks Technology sector. Estimates have been stable over the past month, with the company expected to earn $0.84 on $2.08 billion in revenues vs. $0.35 on $1.4 billion in revenues in the year-earlier period.

Friday – 2/10/2017: A relatively light reporting docket, with 5 S&P 500 members reporting results.

Q4 Expectations As a Whole

For Q4 as a whole, combining the actual results from the 275 S&P 500 members that have reported with estimates for the still-to-come 225 companies, total earnings are expected to be up +6.8% from the same period last year on +3.9% higher revenues. This would follow the +3.7% growth in Q3 earnings on +2.2% higher revenues, the first instance of positive earnings growth for the index after five quarters of back-to-back declines. Comparisons for the Energy sector, a big driver of the earnings recession, turn positive in Q4, with the sector’s earnings growth turning positive for the first time after 8 quarters of declines.

The chart below shows the Q3 earnings growth contrasted with declines in the preceding 5 quarters. As you can see in the chart below, the growth pace is expected to ramp up in 2017.

The table below shows the summary picture Q4 contrasted with what was actually achieved in the preceding quarter.

For a complete analysis of the Q4 earnings season, please check out our weekly Earnings Trends report – 4 Things to Know about theQ4 Earnings Season
 

Here is a list of the 470 companies reporting this week, including 84 S&P 500 members.