After New Talks With Chipotle Management, Analyst Sees Slow Recovery

After visiting Chipotle (CMG) headquarters in Denver to meet with co-CEO Monty Moran and CFO Jack Hartung, Morgan Stanley analyst John Glass and team said Thursday that "nothing we heard changes our view on the slower pace of recovery, commensurately lower store margins and possibly slower rate of unit growth going forward."

Though the analyst is "generally supportive" of the company's deliberate approach, rebuilding consumer trust and buy frequency "will be a long term proposition." Explaining his key takeaways from the visit, Glass says the Chiptopia loyalty program has spurred Chipotle's most loyal users to return, but that "doesn't speak to the other 75% of customers that are less frequent... It's unclear how Chiptopia has fared since the last earnings call, and management did note that its enrollment appears to have leveled out recently." Chipotle plans a transparency campaign for Q4 to pull in those less-frequent consumers, but "it's unclear whether it has the call to action needed to drive near term sales," the analyst argues.

Glass keeps an Equal Weight rating and $405 price target on the shares.

PRICE ACTION: Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill are down 1% to $395.14 near market close.
 

Disclosure: None.

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