5 Fed-Fueled Stocks And "The Yellen Effect"

In an article I posted today at Seeking Alpha I introduced what I call the "first year fallout syndrome" (FYFS) when a new Federal Reserve chair takes control. It can set the stage for a big, opportunistic stock market correction.

To quote my own article: "The first year of the 20 year reign of Alan Greenspan as chair of The Federal Reserve is unforgettable. He and his team tinkered with monetary policies and by October we experienced the worst one day stock market plunge in history...a 20% shocker!

"His successor, Ben Bernanke, took the reins of The Fed in 2007, and by August of that year the first signs of the great financial meltdown began. During an inauspicious week that August leveraging requirements were tightened and the markets began to free fall."

In the body of the article I offer 5 stocks - Vodafone (VOD), ConAgra Foods (CAG), Citigroup (C), HomeDeport (HD) and PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT), that have 25% to as much as 100% upside potential. How I wish I'd included Apple (AAPL) in that list of 5. Little did I realize that a few hours after my article would be released, the world's most valuable stock would announce blowout earnings results and a 7-for-1-stock split.

If that wasn't good enough, Apple announced it would increase its stock buyback program to $90 billion. The stock soared 8% in after hours trading to around $566.

My sense is that Thursday should be a great up day for the market and especially the NDX. Here's how the Associated Press summarized Apple's big announcements:

"The Cupertino, Calif., company will spend an additional $30 billion buying back its slumping stock through the end of next year. The commitment increases Apple's stock buyback program to $90 billion. Apple Inc. has invested about $46 billion in its stock since the program began in 2012.

— Apple's quarterly dividend is being increased 8 percent to $3.29 per share from $3.05 per share. Making the payments will cost Apple more than $11 billion annually. The dividend has now risen by 24 percent since Apple began making the payments nearly two years ago in an about-face from the co-founder Steve Jobs' long-standing resistance to parting with the company's cash. Jobs died in October 2011 after a long battle with cancer.

— A seven-for-one stock split will be executed in early June. The maneuver will result in a dramatic decline in the trading price of Apple's stock to account for an increase in Apple's outstanding shares. Apple is counting on the split to fuel demand for the stock by making it more affordable for more people to buy. Had the split occurred at Wednesday's closing price of $524.75, the stock would probably begin trading at around $75. The stock has been hovering about 25 percent below its peak price reached in September 2012 amid concerns about the company's slowing sales growth and pace of innovation.

— Apple fared better than analysts anticipated during the opening three months of the year, largely because a 17 percent increase in the number of iPhones sold offset a drop in iPad shipments. The company's earnings rose 7 percent to $10.2 billion, or $11.62 per share. That topped the average estimate of $10.19 per share among analysts surveyed by FactSet. Revenue climbed 5 percent to $45.6 billion — about $2 billion above analyst projections."

I'm long shares of AAPL, so this was all great news for me and millions of others. Now I'm wondering over the next 5 weeks what will happen to the stock market.

Will FYFS intercede to make this a year where smart investors sell in May and go away? If so, the next big buying season for the market, where many great companies will be "on sale", may not be until late October or early November.

This is a distinct and historically relevant possibility. Are you ready to do the hardest thing that traders and investors have to do? It's harder to know when to sell then it is to know when to buy.

I'll most likely hang onto my Apple stock (or most of it) and see how this all unfolds. But as I wrote in the Seeking Alpha article, "If you want to keep investing during this historically uncertain period, go for companies that are hated, overlooked, misunderstood and more reasonably priced." Then I gave 5 examples for your consideration. Please click here to read why I recommend these 5 stocks. Best regards and best results to all.

Nothing in this commentary should be construed as investment advice or guidance or any recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. It is not intended as investment advice or guidance, nor ...

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