3 Ways To Profit From Earnings Overreactions

We’ve uncovered some noteworthy trends thanks to the earnings calls over the past two weeks. But, even more interesting is the buying opportunities that earnings overreactions have created. Great investors, once they see which stocks we profiled, will jump on the chance to purchase these stocks knowing that big returns are almost guaranteed.

So far, earnings season has been a mixed bag. The broader economy could be in trouble, our dollar risk prediction is playing out (which is bad news for some of the market’s favorite stocks), and old tech is being scrapped for new tech.

But one thing is for sure, volatility is still en vogue. Stock swings of up or down 10% in a single day are in full force. But for long-term investors these are a great buying opportunities.

First, let’s talk dollar risk.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) shares are off 6% this week, driven by a weak earnings release — mainly due to currency headwinds. Management noted that earnings per share would have been 6% higher if not for the currency impact.

Recall that we called P&G out back in November, noting that the strong dollar was going to punish a number of multinationals. And so we recommended investors trade in some international exposure for pure-play U.S. companies like Southwest (NYSE: LUV) and Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST).

What about the global economy?

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) shares are down 6% this week due to a weak earnings report, where the company lowered its expectations for the year. Signaling, that perhaps the rest of the world isn’t growing quite as fast as we’d expected.

In Jim Cramer’s book, “Get Rich Carefully,” he points to the importance of Caterpillar’s earnings, noting, “the first and most important call I turn to of the hundreds of companies I follow is the quarterly earnings call from Caterpillar.”

Digging deeper, Cramer says, “Caterpillar’s the primer, the source for your global outlook. If I had only one document to form my view of the domestic economy, the Chinese economy and the global economy [...] I would just listen to the Caterpillar conference call.”

With that, could 2015 really be the reset year we’ve been waiting for?

In any case, I think the real value opportunities from this quarter lie in the tech space.

It was a true mixed bag for tech; Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) was one of the few bright spots in tech, crushing earnings. Shares are back up near 52-week highs, having surged 63% over the last year. This comes after a record quarterly profit of $18 billion. And that’s not just a record for Apple, but for any company. Ever.

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) is another feel-good story, with shares soaring 15% after announcing earnings, putting the stock up 30% year-to-date. The company nearly doubled net income year-over-year and continues to take over the world — with plans to launch in New Zealand and Australia next month.

Meanwhile, “old” tech company IBM (NYSE: IBM) continued its recent history of stock price decline after releasing earnings. Its fourth quarter revenue numbers marked the 11th straight quarter that IBM’s revenues declined.

But not all tech stocks are created equal. And the problem with investing based on earnings is that predicting earnings is a fool’s errand. However, what happens after earnings is another story. As you noticed above, some stocks see wide swings in their stock prices after releasing earnings.

I’ve long thought that investors could use short-term overreactions in stock prices to dollar cost average into great companies. And there’s a precedent for this.

The notion of investing in stocks after large moves after earnings has been around since 1968, when the idea was first discovered by Raymond Ball and Phillip Brown. Since then, there’s been a number of white papers and academic studies produced confirming the anomaly.

In “The Little Book of Stock Market Profits” by Mitch Zacks, he notes that one driver of post-earnings announcement drift (read: a stock price movement after earnings) is investor behavior.

Beyond that, Zacks writes, “the less sophisticated investors are, the more likely they are going to overreact to the earnings surprise.” He also cites a study that found 30% of all trading around earnings announcements is done by individuals, not institutions.

There’s also the “Contrarian Investment Strategies” book by David Dreman that gets into using earnings surprises as a profitable investing strategy. It’s an older book, but much like all the great investing books, is still relevant in today’s market.

Dreman writes, “you can frequently harness the powerful effects of a disappointing earnings surprise by buying GARP (growth at a reasonable price) companies after they have been blasted.”

Quantpedia backtested a post-earnings announcement strategy from 1987 to 2004, producing an average annual return of 15%. And recall that we profiled five stocks worth buying nearly eight months ago, because the market had—quite simply—overreacted. On average, those five stocks are up 17% since then — outperforming the S&P 500 by 10 percentage points.

So, by all accounts, there’s a lot of evidence that supports the fact that post-earnings stock price movements can be driven by investors’ overreaction to earnings surprises.

Without further ado, here’s three tech stocks worth buying on the recent earnings’ overreactions:

Stock To Buy On The Overreaction No. 1: Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)

Microsoft is off 10% over the last week. Its earnings were in-line with Wall Street expectations, with the strong dollar having a negative impact on results. But investors also caught on to the slowing demand for Windows software. Yet, the real issue with the earnings is that Microsoft was coming off a great year last year due to the XP upgrade. So, year-over-year, the numbers didn’t look all that great.

But new CEO, Satya Nadella, is still early on in his Microsoft turnaround. He’s got plans of cutting costs at the tech giant and divesting some non-core businesses. Look for Microsoft to make a bigger push to the cloud via its Office 365 product, possibly doing what Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) did with its Creative Cloud by moving toward a full subscription-based model.

There’s also the capital allocation story at Microsoft. Its dividend yield is up to 3% and its upped that dividend payment for 11 straight years now. It also plans to complete its $30 billion plus buyback program by the end of 2016.

And after the recent selloff, Microsoft trades at 17x earnings. Many of the legacy (read: older) tech companies trade at higher multiples, these include the likes of Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL), Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) and EMC (NYSE: EMC).

Stock To Buy On The Overreaction No. 2: Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM)

Qualcomm shares fell as much as 13% after earnings. Shares are now basically flat over the last twelve months. The tech company beat expectations on the top and bottom lines, but the market focused only on the fact that fiscal 2015 will come in lower than expected.

The big news, of course, being that its newest Snapdragon mobile chip won’t be used in one of its major customer’s flagship phones — presumed to be Samsung’s S6. However, is missing out on the S6 really worth the $12 billion in market value that Qualcomm lost on the news? Longer-term, Qualcomm will continue to be a major player in the wireless chip market. Especially as there’s a great shift toward LTE.

As a side note (and something long-term investors will be interested in), Qualcomm offers a 2.4% dividend yield. It’s upped its dividend for 12 consecutive years and with the selloff, its dividend yield is now at the highest level its ever been. The valuation is also compelling, trading at nearly 12x forward earnings, this is the cheapest we’ve seen Qualcomm in well over half a decade.

Stock To Buy On The Overreaction No. 3: Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO)

After spiking nearly 10% on the news that it was spinning off its Alibaba (NASDAQ: BABA) stake, shares of Yahoo have fallen close to 4% for the week — now trading around $43 a share.

Yahoo’s fate is still somewhat tied to Alibaba (it won’t spinoff its 15% stake until the fourth quarter). And so, the poor earnings from Alibaba (where the stock tumbled 10% in a day) are weighing on Yahoo.

However, for Yahoo’s own quarter, its revenues were in-line with expectations and the significance of the Alibaba spinoff shouldn’t be overlooked. The deal will be tax-free, where some analysts were banking on a 40% tax bill for an Alibaba sale.

After the selloff, Yahoo’s market cap is now down to $42.5 billion. But it has $6.7 billion in net cash (cash less debt), still has a 35.5% interest in Yahoo Japan (said to be worth $7 billion) and its Alibaba stake is worth $33.5 billion. Just using the cash and Yahoo Japan and Alibaba stake, the theoretical value is over $47 billion.

Investors also get Yahoo’s core advertising business (essentially free based on the above numbers), which may or may not merge with AOL (NYSE: AOL). In the least, I’d expect there to be a conversation between Marissa Mayer (Yahoo CEO) and Tim Armstrong (AOL) within the next year about whether the two together could better compete with Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL).

There was a lot going on this earnings season, but one thing remains constant: Earnings overreactions are providing great opportunities for investors. The key is to make sure the market is overreacting to short-term (fixable) issues and not long-term fundamental ones.

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