18 Drugs To Lose Patents In 2017; Could Jeopardize $26.5B For Big Pharma
With 18 branded drugs on the line, patent losses this year could jeopardize $26.5 billion in annual sales from Big Pharma, projected to be the biggest fall-off until at least 2025, according to Bernstein analyst Tim Anderson...Which companies are at risk? [Read on.]
Written by Eric Sagonowsky (FiercePharma.com)
This year's potential patent expiry damage is much more daunting than 2015 and 2016, when only 4 and 9 meds from companies in Bernstein’s coverage lost exclusivity, respectively.
Anticipated expirations for 2017 include:
- Roche’s Rituxan,
- GSK’s Advair,
- Eli Lilly’s Humalog and Cialis,
- AstraZeneca’s Byetta,
- Pfizer’s Viagra and
- Merck’s Vytorin.
Together, the 2017 patent losses and associated sales declines will “continue to pressure growth” in the industry, according to Anderson.
Back in 2012, the U.S. drug market actually contracted by 1%, tallied by the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics, as a wave of patent losses hit top drugmakers. It was the first time the institute had ever noted a shrink in that metric. EvaluatePharma has reported that $55 billion in total drug sales lost patent protection that year.
This time around, though, Anderson noted that about 45% of the sales at risk looking forward are for biologics, which will face bio-similar competition rather than generics. There, he said, “erosion rates will be slower,” but still “unpredictable.” Roche tops the list of drugmakers facing biosimilar threats, with Sanofi, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Lilly trailing in order.
While considering patent losses through 2025 and including the potential value of pipeline assets, Bernstein predicts that:
- AstraZeneca will see the most growth of any pharma company it covers. It’s predicting AZ to grow at an average of 5.6% per year.
- Pfizer is expected to lag the pack in the metric at 2% per year.
- Excluding the value of pipeline assets, the analysts expect Bristol-Myers Squibb will see the most growth to 2025, with AstraZeneca trailing its pharma peers.
On the same day Anderson released his report, Teva announced it’s launching a new inhaler, AirDuo RespiClick, and an authorized generic, aiming to take a stab at Glaxo’s top drug, Advair. The product isn’t directly substitutable, but will come at a deep discount to the hard-to-copy GSK asthma and COPD treatment.
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