Reflections On Bitcoin's Broken Parabola
John Hussman makes comments on parabolic charts in general, and Bitcoin specifically.
Broken parabolas typically collapse in phases w/blistering rallies in between. Bitcoin is among the canaries in the coalmine of temporary speculative "wealth" born of deranged monetary policy. Already at 1/3 of its peak, losing another 50% would be nothing https://t.co/czIC3CmiBm
— John P. Hussman (@hussmanjp) June 24, 2018
On a log chart things do not look as messy, yet the parabola is clearly still visible, two of them in fact.
Bitcoin Log Scale
If Bitcoin's third parabola rises as much as the first two, the price target is $100,000.
But will there be a third parabola? If so, from where?
Who cares, just Hodl?
The Hodlers need a third parabola.
Fundamentally, there is no reason to expect one. Bitcoin does not scale (other cryptos claim to). Transaction costs are ridiculous.
Some claim these problems can be fixed. OK, so why aren't they? Will it matter if they are?
What about barriers to entry? Here's the answer: there aren't any.
Volatility makes Bitcoin useless as a day-to-day currency. It is a speculative plaything, even if the technology isn't.
Ideas of mass adoption seem absurd. And finally, what about Central Banks or governments ruling it illegal?
Many Hodlers ignore all these issues, but the earlier believers made a fortune.
Carnival Barkers
Those still Hodling have become carnival barkers. They have to. They desperately need more people to ignore the broken parabolas and buy on belief.
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