Arbor Realty Trust Could Grow 25% To 2019

Every New York stock exchange trading day I'm posting a daily dividend stock or fund review. I'll share the three chief qualities of just one equity or fund that could be selected for a dividend stock portfolio I've named the Safari to Sweet Success.

This week the portfolio I'm building (my Safari To Sweet Success portfolio) seeks a high-yield and growing stock in the real estate sector. 

That real estate sector includes nine industries all related to real property ownership. The industries are: general real estate; real estate services; and seven varieties of real estate investment trusts: diversified, healthcare facilities, hotel & motel, industrial, office, residential, and retail.

Today I'm reviewing a small-cap diversified real estate investment trust or REIT. The trust's name is Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. Its trading ticker symbol is ABR.  

Arbor Realty Trust Inc is a real estate specialty finance firm. It invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multi-family and commercial real estate markets. It also invests in real estate-related bridge and mezzanine loans.

It operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency Business. 

The company qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes. It generally is not subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. 

The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Uniondale, New York

I use three key data points to a gauge in the value of any dividend equity or fund like Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR): 

(1) Price

(2) Dividends

(3) Returns

After those three, four more keys will finally unlock an equity or fund in which to invest. 

No matter what, it's the first three primary traits that best tell whether a company has made, is making, and will make money. 

ABR Price

Arbor's price was $9.94 per share at yesterday's market close. A year ago its price was $8.40 for a gain of $1.54 per share in the past year.  

Assuming Arbor's price will continue to trade in the range of $8.00 to $12.00 next year, its price could grow another $1.54 from $9.94 to $11.54 by June 14, 2019. 

ABR Dividends

Arbor's most recently declared monthly dividend was $0.25 per share paid in May. That $0.25 monthly dividend equates to an estimated annual payout of $1.00 for 2018-19 which yields 10% at yesterday's $9.94. closing stock price.  

Gains For ABR?

Arbor's $1.54 estimated year over year price gain plus an anticipated dividend of$1.00 makes a projected gross annual gain of $2.54 per share, which will be reduced by the costs to trade those shares.  

A little over $1,000.00 invested today at the $9.94 price buys 101 shares. 

A $10 broker fee paid half at purchase and half at sale subtracts $0.10 per share.

Taking that $0.10 brokerage cost out of the estimated $2.54 gross gain per share leaves a net gain of $2.44 X 101 shares = $246.44 or a 24.5% potential net gain on a $1,003.94 investment.

Therefore, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (whose ticker symbol is ABR), now shows a possible nearly 25% net gain including a 10% dividend yield. 

Four analysts cover this stock:

One says "buy" ABR.

One says ABR will "outperform."

Two say "hold" the stock.

Their four-analyst consensus recommendation is 2.25 or "Outperform" and their median price target is $0.14 under the current market price.

Y Charts rates ABR "attractive" for an overall "Y" rating. Y Charts also shows "excellent" for a Value score of 10 out of ten points. And YCharts ranks ABR "strong" with 7 out of 10possible Fundamental points. Y Charts Historic Valuation score for ABR is 7.64% undervalued at a $10.76 historic valuation.

You could look at all those numbers like this:Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) has made money, is making money, and could net a 20% to 30% net gain next year including a 10% annual dividend yield paid out quarterly. It could be more, it could be less.

The above speculation is conjecture based on past year performance. Actual results remain to be seen. They could turn out to be far higher or lower. More study is required for you to determine if Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) is worth your time and money.

Disclosure: Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.ycharts. com; www.finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo ...

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