Tesla Possibly Using 'Aggressive' Discounting To Hit Q3 Targets, Analyst Says

As Tesla (TSLA) ramps up production to convince investors it can deliver the upcoming Model 3 at mainstream volumes, research firm Pacific Crest warned today that the car maker appears to be resorting to "aggressive" discounting to meet Wall Street's expectations.

PAC CREST WARNS OF FUZZY TACTICS, SLOWING DEMAND: In a research note titled "That Darn Downward-Sloping Demand Curve," Pacific Crest analyst Brad Erickson revealed Wednesday that his talks with 20 Tesla U.S. sales centers indicate Q3 deliveries should be "relatively in line" with his 22,000 unit estimate, with the Model X showing particular strength. That said, Erickson warns that the quality of consumer demand for the Model S gives him pause: Beyond the outwardly-acceptable Q3 figures, his checks also detected "aggressive" Model S discounting intended the maximize the quarter's numbers. Indeed, Tesla appears to be "using various discounting mechanisms" to hit its 2016 targets, with the analyst uncovering "continued traction" of the cheaper 60 kilowatt-hour model against the 75 KWH option, which he warns could dilute margins by roughly 1000 basis points. Erickson also believes up to one-third of current Model S orders are coming from Model 3 reservers who are opting for the company's new and cheaper two-year lease. Third, Tesla appears to have been employing a "deeper discounting formula to drive sales of inventory models," says Erickson, with all promotional offers expiring the last day of the quarter. The carmaker's "tactics to improve optics in the face of slowing demand" keep the analyst cautious on Tesla, and he reiterates a Sector Weight rating on the shares.

MUSK PUSHES EMPLOYEES FOR GOOD Q3: As detailed in a September 2 Bloomberg report, Tesla CEO Elon Musk issued an email to employees during the quarter urging them to deliver "every car we possibly can" in Q3 ahead of new fundraising efforts to meet lofty targets for the Model 3 and calm doubts about its proposed acquisition of cash-strapped SolarCity (SCTY). The email added that Tesla is "on the razor's edge of achieving a good Q3, but it requires building and delivering every car we possibly can," according to Bloomberg's report.

PRICE ACTION: Shares of Tesla inched up 0.22% to $206.27 in the regular session before losing 0.21% in after-hours trading. 

Disclosure: None.

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