The Death of Sashko Bily

EU representatives have let the new government in Kiev know that they are deeply concerned about the armed storm troopers of 'Pravy Sektor' and other militant groups in the Ukraine. Pravy Sektor is the organization that has done more than any other of the groups involved in the Kiev protests to chase former president Yanukovich and his henchmen away – mainly because it was not shy to resort to violence.

President Turchynov has quickly promised to disarm all extremist groups. There has already been one much debated confrontation between security forces (SOKOL) and one of the leaders of 'Pravy Sektor', Alexandr Muzychko, better known as Sashko Bily. Muzychko died in a shoot-out in a cafe in Rivne in the western Ukraine. Muzychko was actually wanted for war crimes in Russia: According to IB Times, “Russian officials had issued an arrest warrant for Muzychko for alleged atrocities, including torture, against Russian troops in Chechnya during the 1990s.”

IB Times also notes that there are conflicting reports about how exactly Muzychko died, who incidentally had predicted that he would be killed shortly before it happened in a video posted on Youtube. He in turn also repeatedly threatened to kill the Ukraine's new interior minister Arsen Avakov, whom he apparently disliked. Evidently,  Asakov was faster.

The BBC reports that 'Pravy Sektor' promptly declared it would avenge Sashko Bily's death:

Ukraine's Deputy Interior Minister Vladimir Yevdokimov said Muzychko died after opening fire at police and Sokol special forces, who had raided a cafe to arrest him and fellow ultra-nationalists. The authorities described Muzychko as a criminal gang leader.

During the raid, Muzychko fired at police as he was trying to flee, wounding one of them. Police then returned fire and captured him and three others in his "criminal gang", Mr Yevdokimov said.

"He was still alive as they were arresting him – but then the paramedics, called to the scene, found that he had died," Mr Yevdokimov said. The three arrested gang members have been taken to Kiev for questioning.

A Right Sector organiser in Rivne has now threatened revenge for the killing of Muzychko, saying he had not been summoned by investigators.

"We will avenge ourselves on [Interior Minister] Arsen Avakov for the death of our brother. The shooting of Sashko Bily is a contract killing ordered by the minister," said Roman Koval of the Right Sector in Rivne region, quoted by the Ukrayinska Pravda website.”

(emphasis added)

Pravy Sektor leader Sashko Bily when he was still among the quick.

(Youtube screenshot – via pravda.ru)

A Growing Rift

The Ukrainian parliament's decision to disarm 'Pravy Sektor' was taken on the same day Sashko Bily was sent to the eternal hunting grounds. Just as the EU demanded (incidentally also on the same day), the decision entailed the disarmament of all armed groups in the Ukraine, including the separatist militants in the East:

“Ukraine's parliament on Tuesday ordered security forces to disarm illegal armed groups as police shut down the Kiev base of a far-right nationalist group prominent in the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovich after a shooting incident in which three people were wounded.

Ukraine's new leaders acted after Monday night's violence in Kiev city center, conscious that an increasing criminal climate could discredit the anti-Yanukovich uprising and be used by Moscow's propaganda machine to show that law and order was breaking down in Ukraine.

The proposal approved by parliament linked a growing "criminal atmosphere" to what it described as "systematic provocations from foreign citizens in the eastern-southern regions of Ukraine and in Kiev" – suggesting that Russian agents or trouble-makers were stirring unrest in parts of the country.

"Parliament orders the interior ministry and the state security service to immediately disarm illegal armed groups," the motion said.

"Only those in the armed forces of Ukraine, the National Guard or the state security service (SBU) may carry arms," said acting president Oleksander Turchinov. "If they do not belong to the army, the National Guard or the police, they are saboteurs who are working against Ukraine."

Police on Monday night moved in on a city center hotel where the far-right group Right Sector had its Kiev base after a man – said by police to be a member of the group – pulled out a gun and shot and wounded three people outside a restaurant.

The incident occurred close to Independence Square or Maidan, center of the uprising against Yanukovich. He fled in late February after a three-month revolt in which more than 100 people were killed, many by police snipers.

Right Sector was the first group on the side of the protesters to use violent tactics against Yanukovich's riot police – including throwing petrol bombs and bricks and burning police vehicles – in otherwise peaceful 'Euromaidan' demonstrations against Yanukovich.

But the continued activity of the group long after the flight of Yanukovich risks embarrassing the new leadership as it tries to foster a peaceful and orderly climate around a presidential election on May 25.”

(emphasis added)

So what actually happened since then? As far as we can tell, none of the groups, whether Ukrainian nationalists or Eastern separatists, have actually been disarmed. Consider for instance the recent altercation in Slovyansk, in which three people were killed. It seems both regular forces as well as armed Pravy Sektor members were involved:

“Special forces loyal to government and armed men from the radical Right Sector movement launched an operation Sunday to suppress pro-federalization protesters in the east Ukrainian town of Slaviansk, RIA Novosti reported.

At least three people, including a pro-federalization supporter, were killed in clashes in the town, some 150 kilometers from the border with Russia, while two other activists were injured, activists said.

Pro-federalization activists seized a local administration building, a district police department and a security service office on Saturday.

The leader of the Right Sector movement, Dmytro Yarosh, called on his supporters Saturday to mobilize amid the recent events in eastern Ukraine, where local residents rally in support of federalization.”

(emphasis added)

So apparently the government is still not above using Pravy Sektor troopers when convenient, but on the other hand we do believe that prime minister Arsenyuk and president Turchynov are becoming increasingly uneasy with this particular alliance, and not only because EU representatives told them about their misgivings. They were happy to rely on the group's help during the protests in Kiev, but it was always clear that this was merely an alliance of convenience.

It remains to be seen how the growing rift between the nationalist militants and their erstwhile allies in Kiev ultimately shakes out. Keep in mind that Pravy Sektor leader Dmytro Yarosh is actually still a member of the government as deputy head of the National Security Council – which means he is one of the people running the government's police apparatus. He also plans to take part as a candidate in the upcoming presidential election.  His chance of winning appears vanishingly small, but we believe his support is actually a bit greater than the polls indicate.

Lastly, it seems highly unlikely to us that the government will actually succeed in disarming either 'Pravy Sektor' or any of the other militant groups, including the separatists, in the near future. These radical groups are what creates the latent danger of civil war in the Ukraine (we tend to believe that the probability of civil war is vastly overstated in the media, especially the Russian ones, but it is clearly greater than zero). Most of the Ukrainian people are undoubtedly peaceful, regardless of any political differences they may have.

Moreover, just as is the case with the 'Euromaidan' supporters, the so-called 'pro-Russian' groups in the Eastern Ukraine are surely not a monolithic bloc either. It is not the case that everybody in the East necessarily wants the regions to break away from the Ukraine or join Russia, even if they are opposed to the current government in Kiev. Most would probably be quite happy with a federalized Ukraine – and the interim government in Kiev has in the meantime acknowledged that something will have to be done in this respect. This is also the solution that seems most likely to take the wind out of the sails of militants on both sides.

Pravy Sektor leader Dmytro Yarosh

(Image source unknown)