Overnight Markets And News

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 +0.88%) this morning are up +0.79% and European stocks are up +1.29%, both at 2-1/2 week highs, after the results of Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections signal gridlock in Washington. Stocks rose, the 10-year T-note yield fell, and the dollar index (DXY00 -0.50%) slid to a 2-week low after Democrats moved back to the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, which dims the chances of passage of any major budget-busting fiscal measures from the Trump administration that could have boosted T-note yields and the dollar. Energy stocks are higher after Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18 +1.16%) climbed +1.25% when OPEC+ delegates said OPEC+ ministers, who will meet this weekend in Abu Dhabi, will discuss the prospects for fresh crude production cuts next year. OPEC ministers are concerned that rising output may oversupply the global market as OPEC crude production has risen for six consecutive months and OPEC Oct crude production climbed to an 11-month high of 33.33 million bpd. European stocks received a boost after German Sep industrial production unexpectedly rose +0.2% m/m, a sign of economic strength in Europe's largest economy. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -0.28%, Hong Kong +0.10%, China -0.68%, Taiwan +0.85%, Australia +0.37%, Singapore +0.15%, South Korea -0.41%, India +0.89%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index retreated from a 2-week high and closed lower after USD/JPY dropped from a 4-week high and moved lower after the dollar weakened on the results of the U.S. midterm elections.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.50%) is down -0.58% at a 2-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.45%) is up +0.47% at a 2-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.20%) is down -0.20%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ18 +0-020) are up +3.5 ticks.

Eurozone Sep retail sales were unch m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m.

German Sep industrial production rose +0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of no change.

Japan Sep labor cash earnings rose +1.1% y/y, right on expectations. Sep real cash earnings fell -0.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.3% y/y.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -2.5% to 329.5 with purchase sub-index -1.5% to 224.9 and refi sub-index -3.8% to 884.2), (2) FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting, (3) EIA weekly Petroleum Status Report, (4) Treasury auctions $19 billion of 30-year T-bonds, and (5) Sep consumer credit expected +$15.000 billion, Aug +$20.078 billion.

Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Prudential Financial (consensus $3.16), Dish Network (0.68), Rockwell (2.02), Humana (4.26), Southern Co (1.08), Marathon Oil (0.21), TripAdvisor (0.48), Take-Two Interactive (0.91), News Corp (0.05), Wynn Resorts (1.67), Monster Beverage (0.46).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: Robert W. Baird Industrial Conference on Tue-Thu, National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts REIT World Convention on Wed-Thu.

Market Comments

Dec S&P 500 E-minis (ESZ18 +0.88%) this morning are up +21.75 points (+0.79%) at a 2-1/2 week high. Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.63%, Dow Jones +0.68%, Nasdaq 100 +0.750%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed higher on a rally in technology stocks and on short-covering ahead of the results of Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections. Stocks were undercut by the -284,000 decline in U.S. Sep JOLTS job openings to 7.009 million, a bigger decline than expectations of -51,000 to 1.085 million, and by the weakness in energy stocks as crude oil prices slumped -1.41% to a 7-3/4 month low.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ18 +0-020) this morning are up +3.5 ticks. Tuesday's closes: TYZ8 -4.50, FVZ8 -3.50. Dec 10-year T-notes on Tuesday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower on the rally in the S&P 500, which reduced the safe-haven demand for T-notes, and on supply pressures as the Treasury auctioned $27 billion of 10-year T-notes on Tuesday.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.50%) this morning is down -0.56 (-0.58%) at a 2-week low, EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.45%) is up+0.0054 (+0.47%) at a 2-week high, and USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.20%) is down -0.23 (-0.20%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.202 (-0.21%), EUR/USD +0.0020 (+0.18%), USD/JPY +0.24 (+0.21%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher on the increase in T-note yields, which improved the dollar's interest rate differentials.

Metals prices this morning are higher with Dec gold (GCZ18 +0.56%) +8.1 (+0.66%), Dec silver (SIZ18 +1.14%) +0.140 (+1.17%), and Dec copper (HGZ18 +1.06%) +0.031 (+1.13%). Dec Comex gold (GCZ18) on Tuesday closed down -$6.00 an ounce (-0.49%) and Dec Comex silver (SIZ18) closed down -0.147 (-1.00%). A stronger dollar weighed on precious metal prices Tuesday as did a rally in the S&P 500. Losses were limited in gold as uncertainty about the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections boosted safe-haven demand for gold. Increased demand for gold was illustrated by the fact that long gold positions in ETFs climbed to a 2-3/4 month high on Monday of 2133.13 MT. A bearish factor for silver prices is fund selling as long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 2-1/4 month low of 529.3 million troy ounces on Monday. Silver prices were also weighed down by reduced optimism for an imminent U.S.-China trade deal after White House economic adviser Kudlow on Monday downplayed the potential for a quick trade deal with China.

Dec WTI crude oil prices (CLZ18 +1.16%) this morning are up +78 cents (+1.25%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ18 +0.25%) is +0.43 (+0.25%). Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18) on Tuesday closed down -89 cents (-1.41%) per barrel and Jan Brent crude (CBF19) closed down -$1.42 (-1.94%). Dec RBOB gasoline (RBZ18) rebounded from an 8-3/4 month low and closed up +0.21 cents a gallon (+0.12%). Dec WTI crude oil on Tuesday tumbled to a 7-1/2 month low and Jan Brent crude dropped to a 2-1/2 month low. Crude oil prices sold off on strength in the dollar along with expectations for increased U.S. supplies. EIA weekly U.S. crude inventories on Wednesday are expected to climb +2.0 million bbl, their seventh consecutive increase, and crude stockpiles at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, are expected to climb +2.0 million bbl. Crude oil prices were already on the defensive on reduced global supply concerns after the U.S. granted waivers to Iran's biggest customers to purchase Iranian crude for another six months. Another negative was the action by the EIA to raise its U.S. 2018 crude production estimate to 10.90 million bpd from an Oct estimate of 10.74 million bpd. Gasoline prices recovered from early losses and closed higher after the crack spread climbed to a 4-session high. Gasoline also found support on expectations for EIA gasoline inventories on Wednesday to fall -2.0 million bbl.

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

Coca-Cola (KO +0.86%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Independent Research GmbH with a price target of $57.

Twilio (TWLO -1.05%) rallied 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $168.9 million, stronger than consensus of $150.3 million.

Progressive (PGR +0.07%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal-weight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $84.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc (JAZZ +1.38%) dropped more than 8% in after-hours trading after it forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $12.75 to $13.25, the midpoint below consensus of $13.03.

New Relic (NEWR unch) climbed over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 20 cents, better than consensus of 12 cents, and then forecast Q3 adjusted EPS of 12 cents to 13 cents, above consensus of 9 cents.

Match Group (MTCH +0.55%) slumped 10% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q4 sales of $440 million to $450 million, below consensus of $454.5 million.

Planet Fitness (PLNT +0.81%) rose 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 28 cents, higher than consensus of 24 cents.

Zillow Group (Z +1.46%) sank 20% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q4 adjusted Ebitda of $26 million to $38 million, well below consensus of $74.3 million, and then said it sees full-year adjusted Ebitda of $195 million to $207 million, weaker than consensus of $247.1 million.

Mindbody (MB -2.86%) dropped 18% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $63.8 million, below consensus of $64.0 million, and then forecast Q4 revenue of $65 million to $67 million, weaker than consensus of $68.1 million.

Chuy's Holdings (CHUY +1.63%) slumped more than 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $101.2 million, weaker than consensus of $104.7 million.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB +1.94%) tumbled more than 8% in after-hours trading after it forecast full-year EPS of $1.60 to $1.80, below consensus of $1.89.

Arris International PLC (ARRS +0.69%) jumped 16% in after-hours trading after CNBC reported that CommScope was nearing a deal to buy Arris for more than $31 a share.

Wendy’s (WEN +0.23%) fell 6% in after-hours trading after it reported an unexpected -0.2% decline in Q3 comparable sales, weaker than consensus of a +1.7% increase.

TrueCar (TRUE +0.97%) tumbled 12% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q4 revenue of $95.5 million to $97.5 million, below consensus of $98.8 million.

Proteostasis Therapeutics (PTI -1.30%) jumped 7% in after-hours trading after it was rated a new 'Overweight' at Cantor Fitzgerald with a price target of $21.