Overnight Markets And News

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 -0.34%) this morning are down -0.40% as weakness in technology stocks drags the overall market lower. Qualcomm and Microchip Technology are both down 4% in pre-market trading on concern about a slowdown in future sales. European stocks fell back from a 3-week high and are down -0.13% on weaker-than-expected German trade data after German Sep exports unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m, the biggest decline in 7 months. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +1.82%, Hong Kong +0.31%, China -0.22%, Taiwan +0.37%, Australia +0.53%, Singapore +0.91%, South Korea +0.61%, India closed for holiday. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to 2-week high as telecommunications and pharmaceutical companies rallied on speculation a split Congress may force President Trump to soften his hardline stance on trade. Chinese stocks closed lower despite stronger than expected China Oct trade data that showed China Oct exports jumped +15.6% y/y, the biggest increase in 8-months. The jump in exports is being attributed to Chinese companies rushing to make shipments before U.S. tariffs ae set to kick in.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.23%) is up +0.31%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.06%) is down -0.08%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.12%) is up +0.12%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ18 -0-030) are down -3.5 ticks.

The China Oct trade balance was in surplus by $34.01 billion, narrower than expectations of +$35.15 billion. Oct exports rose +15.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +11.7% y/y and the biggest increase in 8 months. Oct imports rose +21.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +14.5% y/y.

The German Sep trade balance was in surplus +18.4 billion euros, narrower than expectations of +20.0 billion euros. Sep exports unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m and the biggest decline in 7 months. Sep imports fell -0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.8% m/m.

Japan Sep core machine orders plunged by a record -18.3% m/m (data from 1987), weaker than expectations of -9.0% m/m.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -1,000 to 213,000, previous -2,000 to 214,000) and continuing claims (expected +3,000 to 1.634 million, previous -7,000 to 1.631 million), (2) 2-day FOMC meeting concludes (fed funds rate target range of 2.00%/2.25% expected unchanged).

Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Disney (consensus $1.35), Johnson Controls (0.92), Cardinal Health (1.08), DR Horton (1.22), CenterPoint Energy (0.42), Discovery (0.61), NRG Energy (1.02).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Alzheon (ALZH), Eton Pharmaceuticals (ETON).

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: Robert W. Baird Industrial Conference on Tue-Thu, National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts REIT World Convention on Wed-Thu.

Market Comments

Dec S&P 500 E-minis (ESZ18 -0.34%) are down -11.25 points (-0.40%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +2.12%, Dow Jones +2.13%, Nasdaq 100 +3.07%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday climbed to a 3-week high and closed sharply higher on relief that the mid-term election is over. There was also a rally in healthcare stocks on ideas that there will be no major changes in the healthcare system with the new divided Congress.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ18 -0-030) this morning are down -3.5 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYZ8 -0.50, FVZ8 -1.75. Dec 10-year T-notes on Wednesday fell to a 4-week low and closed lower on the sharp rally in the S&P 500 to a 3-week high and on lackluster demand for the Treasury's $19 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.06, well below the 12-auction average of 2.39 and the lowest in 9-3/4 years. T-notes found support on ideas that there will be no new fiscal stimulus measures with the dividend Congress to further boost the deficit. T-notes were also supported by the slump in crude oil prices to a 7-3/4 month low, which reduces inflation expectations.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.23%) this morning is up +0.297 (+0.31%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.06%) is down -0.0009 (-0.08%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.12%) is up +0.14 (+0.12%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.320 (-0.33%), EUR/USD -0.0001 (-0.01%), USD/JPY +0.09 (+0.08%). The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower on the reduced chances for any new fiscal stimulus measures with the divided Congress. There was also strength in EUR/USD which climbed to a 2-week high after German Sep industrial production rose +0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of unchanged.

Metals prices this morning are weaker with Dec gold (GCZ18 -0.24%) -4.6 (-0.37%), Dec silver (SIZ18 -0.37%) -0.094 (-0.65%), and Dec copper (HGZ18 -1.29%) -0.041 (-1.47%). Dec Comex gold (GCZ18) on Wednesday closed up +$2.40 an ounce (+0.20%) and Dec Comex silver (SIZ18) closed up +0.0695 (+0.48%). A sell-off in the dollar fueled gains in precious metals prices Wednesday as the dollar index tumbled to a 2-week low. Also, the results of Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections that put Democrats in control of the House of Representative may crimp the prospects for further tax cuts and further fiscal stimulus, which could be negative for industrial metals prices. Recent stock market volatility has increased the safe-haven demand for gold as long gold positions in ETFs climbed to a 2-3/4 month high on Tuesday of 2135.5 MT. Gains in gold prices were limited after the S&P 500 rallied to a 2-1/2 week high, reducing safe-haven demand for precious metals. Funds continued to shed long silver positions as silver held by ETFs fell to a 3-3/4 month low of 527.52 million troy ounces on Tuesday.

Dec WTI crude oil prices (CLZ18 +0.23%) this morning are up +21 cents (+0.34%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ18 +0.41%) is +0.80 (+0.49%). Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18) on Wednesday closed down -54 cents (-0.87%) per barrel and Jan Brent crude (CBF19) closed down -$0.15 (-0.21%). Dec RBOB gasoline (RBZ18) closed down -4.66 cents a gallon (-2.75%). Dec WTI crude tumbled to a 7-3/4 month low and Dec RBOB gasoline slumped to an 8-3/4 month low on increased supplies. Wednesday's weekly EIA inventory data showed a +5.78 million bbl increase in EIA crude inventories to a 5-month high, much more than expectations of +2.0 million bbl. Also, EIA gasoline supplies unexpectedly rose +1.852 million bbl, more than expectations for a -2.0 million bbl decline. In addition, U.S. crude production in the week ended Nov 2 rose sharply by +3.6% w/w to a record high of 11.6 million bpd. Crude prices saw some early strength Wednesday after the dollar index fell to a 2-week. Also, the prospects for future cuts in OPEC+ crude production gave prices an early lift after OPEC+ delegates said they will discuss crude production cuts for 2019 when they meet this weekend in Abu Dhabi.

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

QUALCOMM (QCOM -0.66%) fell 4% in pre-market trading after it forecast Q1 sales of $4.50 billion to $5.30 billion, below consensus of $5.56 billion.

Microchip Technology (MCHP +0.39%) slid nearly 4% in pre-market trading after it forecast Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.49 to $1.64, weaker than consensus of $1.65.

Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO +1.72%) rose more than 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted revenue of $583.4 million, higher than consensus of $551.1 million.

Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY -2.71%) may move higher initially this morning when it was announced after the close of trade on Wednesday that it will replace EQT Corp in the S&P 500 prior to the market open on Tuesday, November 13.

Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN +3.92%) tumbled 12% in after-hours trading after CEO Maddox warned of a slowdown in Macau this quarter, where Wynn does more than 70% of its business.

CyberArk Software Ltd (CYBR +5.74%) jumped 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 48 cents, higher than consensus of 27 cents, and then forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $1.75 to $1.77, stronger than consensus of $1.47.

Square (SQ +6.96%) slid 4% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q4 adjusted Ebitda of $75 million to $80 million, below consensus of $81.1 million.

Monster Beverage (MNST +2.04%) climbed over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 net sales of $1.02 billion, higher than consensus of $987.9 million.

DaVita (DVA +9.86%) dropped over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 net revenue of $2.85 billion, weaker than consensus of $2.93 billion.

Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM +3.30%) rallied 16% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $111.8 million, better than consensus of $96.8 million, and then forecast full-year revenue of $407.5 million to $409.7 million, above consensus of $390.4 million.

TripAdvisor (TRIP +1.88%) rose 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 72 cents, well above consensus of 48 cents.

Fossil Group (FOSL -12.72%) rallied more than 13% in after-hours trading after it reported an unexpected profit with Q3 EPS up 10 cents, better than consensus of a -19 cents EPS loss.

Flowers Foods (FLO +0.74%) fell more than 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 23 cents, below consensus of 25 cents, and then forecast full-year adjusted EPS of 90 cents to 95 cents, weaker than consensus of $1.01.

Hostess Brands (TWNK -0.90%) dropped nearly 6% in after-hours trading after it forecast full-year adjusted EPS of 52 cents to 55 cents, the midpoint below consensus of 54 cents.