Where In The World To Invest? A Search Of The Globe

Introduction

It is easy to remain fixated on the US. Buoyed on by the Trump Presidency, US stocks continue up. But as measured by standard indices such as price/earnings ratios, US markets are high.

So where else, and by what standards do we choose?

Regional Growth

Consider first what is happening regionally as measured by projected GDP and population growth rates. Table 1 indicates that the populations of Sub-Saharan Africa are growing most rapidly followed by North Africa and the Middle East. Rapid urbanization is slowing growth rates in other regions. Population growth will at some point become a spur to economic growth as demand from growing middle classes emerge. When it comes to present-day economic growth, Asia leads all other regions.

Table 1. – Projected Population and GDP Growth Rates, By Region

Source: FocusEconomics

Countries

From regions, I went to countries with populations of 5 million and up. I screened out countries facing significant political and military uncertainties. And as in Table 1, I look at countries using economic and population growth as proxies. I also include the size of the government deficit as an indicator of how well the government is managing the country’s finances. Green indicates an impressive number while red signifies a problem area.

Remember BRIC – Brazil, Russia, India and China. And at one point, I thought Brazil would be one of the leading countries in the first half of the 21st century. And Russia has serious problems. I worry about India’s rapid growth and its failure to invest in needed infrastructure. China made the infrastructure investments but is now in the tricky process of transitioning from a country driven by export growth to one trying to satisfy the demands of a rapidly growing middle class.

Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic and Peru are my choices in South America. They have progressed steadily over the last decade. The population and GDP growth numbers for the Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are impressive. In Eastern Europe, Uzbekistan is growing rapidly and is actually running a small government surplus!

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I hold now of the stocks mentioned.

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