EUR/USD Forecast: Trump Out-Trumps Dollar Bulls, More Losses Expected

Dollar's sell-off triggered by Trump's press conference extends today, Thursday, with the EUR/USD surpassing the 1.0650 level, the high set last December 29th. The macroeconomic calendar has been light so far, although the EU will release its November Industrial Production figures expected above October's results, while later in the US, focus will be on weekly unemployment claims and Fed speakers, including Evans and Harker.

The first press conference of the upcoming US President since last July, was more of a media circus than a presidential interview, and he actually ended this conference by saying "you're fired,"  the catch phrase he used in his reality show some years ago. Markets ended up with a sour taste in their mouths, as Trump did not address tax reforms, nor infrastructure investment, but focused on discussing with the media hacking, Russia, and "fake news."  He also reiterated his plans to build a wall between the US and Mexico, and to take down and replace Obamacare, though he did not detail a specific plan, on how he will do that, or by the case anything. Just a media circus, as stated above, that only fueled uncertainty about the future of the largest world's economy.

Investors are now thinking that they may have been too optimistic with recent dollar's buying, and quickly unwind dollar's long positions. In the meantime, stocks are trading lower, and commodities higher, with gold above the $1,200 a troy ounce mark.

Trading at its highest since mid December, the pair seems poised to extend its advance up to 1.0710 now, the 38.2% retracement of the November/January slide, given that in the 4 hour chart, the 20 SMA has finally accelerated its advance beyond the 100 and 200 SMAs, all of them below the 1.0600 level, while the RSI indicator heads north around 62. The Momentum indicator in the same chart lacks directional strength, but holds within positive territory.

The immediate support is now the 1.0620 region, with a break below it exposing 1.0565, the 23.6% retracement of the mentioned slide.

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