Rating Global Investing

Yesterday, www.StockGumshoe.com, a daily blog run by Travis Johnson, published its readers' ratings for www.global-investing.com which you are now reading. We were top-rated at 5 stars for our performance and for value, and at 4 stars for the quality of our content and analysis. However, our customer service rating was at 3 stars, because it hard to handle.

As we plan to move our website into the talkmarkets.com system, I think the customer service function will be less onerous and therefore will improve. Thank you to all the gummies who tried out this newsletter and took the time to rate my work. This is the best kind of publicity, free and independent by actual readers.

Most of the trial subs I offered his readers were for 3-mo trials three years ago.

While Hong Kong continues to lower its prices for internet stocks, the US tech advance continues for Apple if not the rest of the FAANGs. Hong Kong shares lost modestly yesterday, while China plummeted another 1.3%. I am using the S&P data rather than the local indexes full of state-sector companies.

The Bank of England gave a mixed view of the impact of exiting the EU on its banks which the Governor opposed before the vote. They are said to be able to cope without having to curb lending or be bailed out by an additional sum of money this year and next after passing its stress tests.

Today we have an annual report at a funny time of the year from Canada and news from India to Singapore, from Spain to the USA, from Colombia to Britain, from Chile to Israel, and plenty of spots in between.

*The annual report was from Bank of Nova Scotia which accompanied its results with heaps of fluff and a big news item as its Q4 earnings per share missed by a loony penny at C$1.65 because of weak capital markets action and its net income rose only 3% from last year's Q4 at C$2.07 bn. Quarterly diluted EPS was up 4% to C$1.64/sh but down sequentially by 3 cents from Q3. The stock fell 2.4% and took down other Canadian banks with it.

The full-year numbers were less awkward but of course, we already knew them as BNS stock rose since the FY began last Nov. 1. Its net for the FY hit C$8.243 bn vs FY 2015-6 level of C$7.368 bn. EPS rose 12% to C$6.49. Return on equity was 14.6% vs prior year's 13.8%. Having already raised dividends 6% this year, its dividend will be 79 loony cents. Its assets are much more Canadian now than a year ago, accounting for 60% of its business, and only 58% of its earnings. Despite this, its results would have been even worse without the impact on its results of the stronger C$, 4.9% Y/Y and 5.5% sequentially.

However, CEO Brian Porter stated that BNS expects to beat the growth in Canadian GNP next year with higher profits from mortgage banking up north. Unusually for a Canadian bank, BNS is not heavily into the USA, which accounts for 12% of assets and (this year) 7% of earnings. The bank is a leader in Latin America and building out its presence in Pacific Rim Asia.

This will be enhanced by its planned deal to buy out the Spanish Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria network in Chile, which BNS is already active. This $2.2 bn (US) deal depends on winning the approval of the Said family which owns 29% of BBVA in Chile. Mr. Porter said that the deal can be funded with cash on hand but the handout implies that BNS's Tier 1 capital ratio will take a 1.35% hit if it goes through.

BNS plans to sell its ScotiaMocatta London gold-trading unit and Goldman Sachs is among the potential bidders. It ran into problems with regulators of how the gold price was fixed on the London Metal Exchange.

More banking news below.

Drug Stocks

*Day-after commentary took down Teva yesterday, to ~$14.5. BofA Merrill reiterated its underperform rating and $11 target price. Morningstar's Michael Waterhouse doubed “Teva's structural change” will lead to the change the market expects because the cost-saving by combining generic and patent sales and research regionally will also make it less likely that TEVA can spin out its branded business. He like me was surprised at the forced retirement of Teva execs, notably Michael Hayden, but also said that the executives promoted all were already at Teva which means the transition will be easier. Credit Suisse wrote of “Devil in the details” but was hopeful that the full restructuring plans will be announced in a few weeks. Until then it kept its underperform rating and $8 target price in place, fearing that the board will again get in the way of the CEO in a more grim situation than the previous combats.

*Alkermes (ALKS, sold) faces 3 lawsuits by US women who claim they were discriminated against by male supervisors and fired if they complained. ALKS after an inversion is Irish.

*Shire is up again after falling yesterday. It is expected to spin out its ADHD and other neurological drugs. SHPG is not being sued for discrimination but is also fake Irish and just named a new CFO.

*Novo Nordisk bought back 1.32 mn of its shares last week under its 17 mn buyback plan to run until Feb. NVO has bought back a total of 13.7 mn shares some of them treasury shares held by itself.

*Zacks put a sell on Roche Holdings of Switzerland yesterday. RHHBY rose 1.4% regardless.

*Israeli speculative pick BiolineRX gained 5.25% on optimism about its gastro-intestinal cancer program combining its BL-8040 withKeytruda. It is at $1.1-$1.11 on heavy volume. I cannot be sure this is the trigger.

Autos and Fuel News

*Toray Industries, TRYIY, yesterday, revealed that it had faked quality data on auto parts from 2008 to the summer of 2016, which hurt 13 companies it sold them to. Data on quality was falsified 149 times by the maker of carbon fiber composites on tire cords and hoses which did not meet standards they were falsely certified as achieving. Among the customers who might have been affected was Boeing, but Toray told a news conference that the planemaker was not affected. There were no safety problems, TRYIY said.

The tendency of Japanese firms to fiddle with their data has become a global scandal affecting not only Takata's exploding airbags, which led it into bankruptcy but other major companies ranging from Kobe Steel to Mitsubishi Materials. Moreover two of the Takata victims, carmakers Subaru and Nissan, both falsely said that their cars had been certified by inspectors when they were not.They recalled their Japanese cars notably the well-named Nissan Rogue. Exported autos were not affected. Toray stock fell 5.3% after the news hit in Japan.

*BP plc faces new competition from its planned gas station battery-chargers from Shell whose share rose3%, boosted also by a stock buyback and an end to paying dividends in scrip, or rights to buy new shares, rather than cash. Shell also raised its cash flow estimate for 2020 to $25-30 bn. Both oil companies also face competition from auto firms and utilities in Europe and Britain including our E.On or EONGY. It is way to soon to pick the winner in the future market for battery-charging.

*Ecopetrol was downrated to underperform from market perform by Raymond James, a brokerage. It is a Colombian state-controlled oil company.

*Banco Santander may face charges from US regulators over allegations that it overcharged for auto loans, according to Reuters. SAN is reshuffling its consumer credit arm in the US, taking a higher share, and getting rid of managers, so there may be something up.

*The reminder of Japanese naughtiness boosted the share of our maker of seat belts and airbags, Swedish Autoliv which gained 1.15% yesterday. ALV.

*HERE which Nokia sold to German auto companies itself is buying Advanced Telematic Systems, a German maker of over the air software updates protected against hackers for autonomous vehicles.

*Schlumberger Ltd which helps find oil and gas wells is up 1.6% yesterday. It is being traded as a forward play on oil prices which is rather silly.

*Cemex is issuing Euro-denominated notes to redeem more expensive US dollar ones, but CX provided few details. The Mexican cement firm with buybacks has improved its bond rating. Its shares rose 0.7% here.

Internets and Telcos

*Unlike the USA, Indian regulators have stuck with “net neutrality” in blocking discrimination against some users. This move affects our Vodafone which has been suffering from cheapo or no-charge cellphone offerings from Reliance Jio, which it is fighting with the combo of VOD and Idea created early this year. VOD offers in underbanked India its mPesa cellphone money transfer option (based on a system developed in Kenya) and international roaming.

*Both Naspers of South Africa and Tencent of Hong Kong are back up yesterday by a renewed taste for Chinese Internets. TCEHY gained 2.2% and NPSNY 0.9%.

*Vale of Brazil is on a rise on the Michel Temer government winning another vote stopping an investigation into any corruption by his team. He now looks like serving until Oct. next year when a new election is planned. It also gains from delay in payments for the Samarco tailings dam disaster.

*Although ultimately run by Brazilians, our BUD is HQ'd in Belgium. But Anheuser-Busch Inbev too gained yesterday.

*Britain continues to boost the shares of BAE Systems, maker of the military equipment. BAESY is now recommended by Bernstein with a GBX 795 target price, equivalent of $40 for a share now at $29.6. The exchange rate of future pricing, however, is not fixed. The broker expects that Britain will not cut its military spending and the Middle Eastern countries will boost theirs.

Funds

*Our recently purchased SPDR S&P China ETF or GNC, is up again despite the China drop.

*Morgan Stanley India Fund, IIF, gained 23% YTD in NAV and 26.5% in market price. It is 15.7% invested in Indian banks. City of London Investment Fund sold a huge volume of its shares in the last month. The fund of funds run by Barry Olliff also invests in institutions.

*Herzfeld Caribbean which a fund manager-reader bought turns out to have landed in his IRA so the end-of-year tax horror will not hit him. The stock of CUBA rose 0.3% yesterday. It declared a dividend of 11.8 cents/sh this year vs 13.5 cents last year. My reader felt we sold Copa Holdings, the Panama based airline too soon, why he grabbed CUBA. CPA is down 1.54% since it was headlined as a CUBA holding, one of the poorest performances by the top ten in the fund which is heavily into tourist-linked Caribbean plays mostly ships which can avoid the hurricane disaster zones.

*Pimco published results of its funds with the SEC yesterday covering its open-end funds but not its closed-end one which we own, PDI,Pimco Dynamic Income Fund. The US arm of Germany's Allianz SE also doesn't publish weekly NAV data either. So it is hard to get a handle on its performance. However last week in seekingalpha.com Bobak Forousan called for the fund to distribute or liquidates some of what he says is its $227 mn in unrealized capital gains. It uses these to keep its payout steady and follow with a big annual distribution at year end. He doesn't think the payout is sustainable without changes by cutting the leverage or the distribution. My view is that they are using derivatives to prepare for the Fed interest rate hike next month and tax accountant Farousan is in over his depth.

*He writes about high yielding funds and tells is where they go wrong. He also wrote about the errors of Macquarie First Trust Global Infrastructure Utilities Dividend & Income Fund, MFD and also asked for more payout. Owners of these funds normally take a long view and I am willing to settle for a yield of 8.73% on NAV or 9.13% on market price (from the date the dividend was declared; it is higher now.)

*Vanguard will launch 6 actively managed US “factor fund” ETFs early next year, none investing outside the USA. This reflects the problems of index chasers in this country, who have to blend different indexes to find their picks. The factors are quality, liquidity, momentum, value, and minimum volatility. The pioneer of passive investing will not be attempting to do the same thing in foreign markets or globally in the short term.

However, US fund giant BlackRock is buying the Citi-Banamex asset management firm in Mexico for use to distribute its funds to Mexican Citi retail customers rather than the current posh and institutional clients. This will increase Mexican stock street cred.

*Brookfield Infrastructure Partners fell on its forthcoming dividend of 4.35 US cents which goes ex-div today. NYSE-BIP has brushed off the John Dizard note in the Financial Times questioning its valuation of NGPL at least for now. Bermuda rules allow a high valuation compared to US ones for partner Kinder Morgan. It does trade at a 3% discount from its NAV perhaps because of such concerns but it closed 2016 with discounts of 12.6% so there is a risk of another drop when the dividend is paid. Its dividend will include gains from the takeover of Veresen by Pembina.

*Our Aurora Investment Trust is trading at a premium of 2% over its net asset value of £2. Unlike the US closed-end fund market, the British IT market often tolerates premiums, particularly in funds which have a splendid track record like AIVTF's parent, Phoenix UK, an open-end fund which US investors are not allowed to buy, whose investment strategy is being copied by its sister fund, Aurora. After the clean-up of the dud Aurora portfolio late in 2015 when Phoenix bought the manager, this year it has produced a NAV return of 19.5% (to end Oct.) and a share price return of 22.1% (to the same date). Meanwhile, the FTSE all-share index, its benchmark, gained only 9.8%. The strategy is to take hefty stakes in a small number of good value ideas by the managers aiming at long-term gains. They are focused stock pickers in Britain who buy and hold.

*Ascendas India Trust run out of Singapore has made a deal for warehouses and railway sidings it will own in the New Delhi region, acquired for S$ 91.4 mn upfront and another S$21.1 mn in milestones over the next 4 years from Arshiya Rail Siding & Infrastructure Ltd. It also signed new deals for Gurgaon, a new town about 20 miles east of New Delhi which has become a shopping, financial, and industrial hub. It is covered by 4 analysts i=and rated outperform with a target price of S$1.21/sh vs yesterday's price of S$1.14-1.16to. It is also trading above its NAV which is 79 Singapore cents per unit at 84 S cents. The S$1.3464 per US$.

*Standard Life Aberdeen is launching a new closed-end fund equivalent in the UK market called European Logistics Income plc which will be listed in London. It will own warehouses and delivery systems. It is possible there will be a US equivalent coming too. The group is streamlining its emerging markets offerings here by combining them into its Chile Fund, which it has no equivalent of in the UK.

Disclosure: None.

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Gary Anderson 6 years ago Contributor's comment

Santander has a certain desperation about its operation. Nice to see talkmarkets expanding its influence with the author's assistence.