Mapping China Contagion: The Flowchart

We know, we know, it’s all about September and "liftoff" and that "diminutive" Atlas-like superwoman Janet Yellen, who holds the fate of the EM world in her media dissent-suppressing hands.

Be that as it may, if the last two weeks have taught us anything at all (other than that a Reg FD violation is called a "scoop" when it involves Jim Cramer and Tim Cook), it’s that China quite clearly matters - and it matters quite a lot. 

We’ve certainly been keen to document the various transmission channels whereby China’s economic deceleration, stock market collapse, and currency deval have translated into a commodities collapse, an emerging market meltdown, and a Black Monday replay on Wall Street, and while we acknowledge the fact that because the situation is quite fluid, a Venn diagram is probably a better way to visualize the interplay between EM carnage, the yuan devaluation, the SHCOMP collapse, FOMC confusion, and commodities carnage, the following China contagion flow chart from RBS should help to provide some clarity on why it is the market seems to suddenly cares so much about China.

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Moon Kil Woong 8 years ago Contributor's comment

One should look at the makings of a economic downturn. It almost always hits commodities and then consumer goods first. With the US exporting so much of this part of the economy to China we should see the effects hit China and see it as the front part of our economic slowdown which it is. Otherwise you are liable to get slammed without recognizing the downturn much like so many got hit in 2008. There is less warning time these days because of that fact.