One of the major problems with shifting your stock tracking to India is that the country uses all sorts of funny Vedic numbers formats, like the crore (10 mn, usually written as 1,00,00,000) and lakh (100,000, written as 1,00,000). This odd system is also for numbers in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka (by Tamils and Sinhalese). Lakh also exists in Swahili, the East African lingua franca, because of trade across the Indian Ocean.

Higher Indian numbers may be at risk like 100 crore, called an arab (a billion or, in Europe, a milliard.) Then there is the kharab, or 100 arab; the padm (a quadrillion or billiard); the shankh (a quintillion); the ogha (an octodecillon). You can also precede any one of these big-numbers with the word maha which adds 5 more zeros.

Given the rickety fall in the oil price, I think the Vedic number system may have to change from the arab, mahaarab, kharab, and mahakharab as the lower oil price impacts Arab wealth.

The biggest ever issue of dollar bonds ever may be needed to finance the new global beer giant.

Today we have news from India, Japan, Canada, Brazil, Hong Kong, South Africa, Italy, Britain, Colombia and Denmark. 

Autos

*This excursion into numerology was triggered by a headline from India stating that Tata Motors (TTM) is buying back two Indian debentures worth 450 crore. The straight debt matures in Nov. 2018 and May 2019 and will be replaced by cheaper bonds. TTM, unlike Fiat Chrysler (FCAU), has low debt for a car-maker, about 55% of its market cap at 73.6 thousand crore of rupees, with the rest shares.

*FCAU's Sergio Marchionne is again the focus of Detroit Auto Show press interest. The Financial Times calls him “the consummate deal-maker” and warns that he is not a “car guy.” This says he now has to improve the combo of Italian and American car-making rather than doing another deal (for GM). Earlier he told the FT: “Oeople suggested that the reason we were looking for [a deal] is because we were ducking our 2018 [performance] commitment, which is a bunch of hogwash”.

FCAU targets are to sell 7 mn cars per year by 2018 and vs a FCAU estimate of 4.8 mn last year, and boost revenues to euros 132 bn and net income to euros 5 bn or more. In 2015, according to FCAU guidance it will have euros 110 bn in sales and profits of euros 1.2 bn, so this is a tough target. He also projects that debt will be brought below euros 1 bn vs a level of euros 7.8 bn at the end of Q3, another tough target. Can Marchionne meet the challenge? He seems to think he can, among other reasons because his bonus of shares worth $36 mn depends on getting the net income to euros 5 bn. FCAU's market cap is about $10.5 bn so this plan is very demanding.

Until the end of Jan. when he is back in Italy and reports on 2015 results and any updates on the 2018 plan, Mr. Marchionne will be challenged by the British pink newspaper to prove himself.

There are a bunch of challenges. First he is trying to build up the Alfa Romeo brand to replace hived off Ferrari in the Fiat complex. The new Giulia saloon car will launch in April, the first of a planned nine new Alfa models. However capital spending has been delayed for the range in part because the premium brand market target was China as well as the US.

The US accounts now for 85% of Fiat-Chrysler operating earnings. China was supposed to offset that. However, the Chinese market is unpredictable. Helping car sales will be lower taxes on small-engine vehicles which may help overcome stock markets lowering Chinese confidence for the past half year, when car sales fell 3.4%. China has now stabilized the yuan. It reported that Dec. $-denominated exports held up in dollars, while consensus estimated a fall of 8%. China also had a mere 4% drop in imports.

However, I find it hard to imagine anyone trying to stay clear of the anti-corruption Chinese cops will buy an Alfa Romeo however much better the Chinese economy does.

IT

* Abhimanyu Sisodia will report on Infosys (INFY) Q3 results. It uses a March 31FY. Yesterday, in anticipation of good performance, INFY stock was up over 2% in US trading. He promises to convert any crore and lakhs into normal numbers and remove any weirdly placed Indian commas. The consensus forecast is EPS at 23 cents and revenus at $2.4 bn.

*Our Japanese small caps portfolio is generating gains with none so good as DeNA Co. (DNACF)  or 2432:Tokyo. Tokyo overall rose nearly 3% this morning. Dena is in a jv with Nintendo called Miitomo to jointly develop game applications for cellphone platforms. It also creates internet protocol games for China. In its most recent quarterly (to end Sept.) DNACF beat its own forecasts with revenue of ¥37.1 bn and operating profit of ¥7.4 bn. Its games are “free” but you have to pay to build your fantasy prowess. I expect the Chinese side will not do as well as anticipated, but the Japanese will do better. DeNA which serves the ghastly teen-aged Asian male gamers, was started up by a Japanese lady who remains on its board. I bought mainly because she was such an anomaly. Both stocks are up 6.2% in Japanese trading.

*Nomura added Tencent (TCTZF) to its list of top global equity picks for 2016. TCTZF also affects the valuation of its 32% shareholder Naspers (NPSNY) of South Africa, also in our portfolio.

Uranium and Energy

*Veresen (FCGYF) was suffering from the sell-off yesterday in US pipeline stocks. I averaged down at C$7.66 despite fearing the gas liquefaction plant it is building at Jordan Cove in Coos Bay (Oregon) to feed Asian markets may be derailed by US gas price weakness. Veresen needs a partner to avoid having to sell down its assets to use its license to export 1.55 bn cu ft of LNG/day from there for 25 years.

Like many seniors among the readership I had hoped to diversify into US pipeline company limited-partnership yield instruments to fund my retirement, which has been a disaster. VSN which trades in the US pink sheets as FCGYF is a lesser one. (Targa Resource Partners, NGLS, one of my pipelines, is doing a reverse split a month from yesterday, at 31:50 shares, probably to cover up a dividend drop.)

I chose VSN as my top dividend pick for 2016 at WallStreetsBestDividendStocks.com at around the current price level. VSN reported last on Dec. 7 (Pearl Harbor Day!) forecasting that it could cover its whopping 13.2% dividend from its existing midstream pipeline revenues. It has no commodity exposure in its contracts as it acts only as a transporter.

*Another Canadian fave is Cameco (CCJ), which can gain from the Asian need for alternative energy sources, in this case uranium. There are now 438 nuclear power plants operating and 67 more are being built, according to the Nuclear Energy Institute. China, with 30 nuclear power plants is building 24 of the new ones and plans another 100 before 2030. While we are all busily discounting China's impact on raw materials, it is unlikely to find an alternative to uranium as its own declining production falls short. The price of uranium from the richest mine in the world, Cigar Lake (operated by CCJ which offtakes half its output) and also operates in the largest producer, Kazakhstan, is likely to rise with new demand this year. Currently costing about $35/lb (US) new demand should more than double back to the $80 level from before the 2011 Fukushima disaster, among other reasons because the Abe govt is bringing Japanese reactors back on-line.

*Ecopetrol (EC) was also up in London, by 5% and is over $6.

*Schlumberger (SLB) was up ~1%. It sells software for finding oil and gas and now takes payment in kind.

*Brazil is back on the samba path and Cosan (CZZ) rose 4.7% yesterday in European trading on big volumes. CZZ refines cane sugar and makes and moves a by-product, ethylene.

Materials and Material Facts

*Vale (VALE) is the world's largest miner of iron ore and it is up 4% on news that Chinese imports overall barely budged last month, down all of 4% in US$s. Since VALE is a big seller to China the fact that imports barely budged is good news.

*CRH plc (CRH) sold its quarter interest in Israeli building materials firm Mashav Hlgsbut denies this was because of pressures from the Boycott-Divest-Sanctions movement which is aiming to cut corporate links with suppliers to illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank. The Irish firm says the sale was part of its internal long-term streamlining program and not because Mashav was selling cement to build the separation fence, as alleged by Palestinian groups.

*As our Vedanta Ltd (VEDL)  crashed earlier. London-traded Vedanta Resources rose 12.7%. This must reflect moves by the controlling shareholder of both, Anil Agarwal or other big players. On a day when Chinese numbers are looking good I remind readers that the Indian GDP figures are suspect because imports and energy use are not tracking the supposed growth, just as happens in China.

Drug Dealers

*The plan by Galapagos (GLPG) to join with Gilead Science (GILD) in developing filgotinib won US Federal Trade Commission approvals cutting down the waiting time. The drug developed by the Belgian firm treats rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory diseases. GLPG employs our former Italy-based biotech maven, which is how we got into it. The deal will be closed later this month and result in a $300 mn upfront payment to GLPG and GILD buying 15% of its stock for $425 mn. There are also milestones. Our former writer is now rolling in it.

*JPMorgan-Cazenove cut its target price for Reckitt Benckiser (RBGLY) which it overweights from GBX6950 to 6700. Then the rest of the fraternity weighed in. Goldman Sachs rates RBGLY neutral with a GBX6365 target price. HSBC upped it to buy with a GBX 7000 TP, raised from 6300. (GBX is British pence. Remember that the ADR is only 1/5 of a UK share and currently at $18).

*CEO Sir Andrew Witty mentioned a possible spin-off of its over-the-counter (non-prescription) drugs during a chat at the JP Morgan Healthcare conference, quoted by Bloomberg. GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) built up its presence in OTC last year by buying the Novartis' (NVS) consumer business now being melded into GSK. It seems odd he should now be talking about divesting it. One temptation may be thanks to the drugstore integration now taking place across the great pond, as Boots and Walgreen-Duane Reade combine their procurement. If GSK decides to buy out its minority Viiv partners Pfizer (PFE) and Shionogi, it may opt to exit OTC, fiercepharma.com writes citing the many OTC deals now being worked out.

Separately, GSK began phase I trials of a hepatitis B treatment leading to milestones payment to Iomis Pharma of $1.5 mn. This uses ligand conjugated antisense technology to deliver a cure to the liver.

*Bavarian Nordic (BVNKF) is trading again in Copenhagen and was on the pinks earlier. BVNKF plans Q ADR.

*Stanley Gibbons (GBX), the UK stamp dealer, fell to a new 12-month low of GBX 59, off over 13%. Its high for the last 12 months was GBX 395 on Jan. 15, 2015, quite a drop. SGI stock trades on the AIM, a somewhat disreputable market. I want to figure out why this is happening. If there are any stamp collectors among you who can explain it, I would be grateful. I assume the stock of stamps hasn't lost value even if there are other more attractive alternative stores of value than philately. SGI is “with it” having just posted a note on UK Royal Mail stamps featuring Star Wars. My husband used to collect stamps but the real winner was my dad's friend Joe Rosenthal, a carpenter, whose collection's sale beat the stock market my family invested in.