Stock markets in India are presently trading marginally higher. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks in the auto sector and realty sector witnessing maximum buying interest.

The BSE Sensex is trading up 96 points (up 0.3%) and the NSE Nifty is trading up 25 points (up 0.2%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 0.6%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 0.7%. The rupee is trading at 68.04 to the US$.

In the news from global financial markets, as per a leading financial daily, President Donald Trump yesterday said that the barriers and tariffs with China will come down for first time and that it had agreed to buy massive amounts of American farm products.

Trump's remarks come after China agreed to significantly increase purchases from the US and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin declared a hold on the trade war between the two economies.

Steven Mnuchin and US President Donald Trump's top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said that the agreement reached by Chinese and American negotiators on Saturday set up a framework for addressing trade imbalances in the future.

The above development follows trade war between the world's top two economies after Trump administration last week published a list of about 1,300 Chinese exports worth US$ 50 billion that could be hit by US tariffs because of Beijing's alleged theft of intellectual property and technology. China hit back with a levy 25% tariffs on imports of 106 US products, bringing the total to US$3 billion in retaliation to Trump's move to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium.

How the above discussion finally pans out remains to be seen. Meanwhile, we'll keep you updated on all the developments from this space.

Trade war or not, events like these cannot stop Sensex 100,000, but can lead to a 30% market crash in the near future. Read on for Tanushree's insights.

In the news from commodity space, crude oil is witnessing buying interest and is headed closer to US$ 80 per barrel mark. Gains are seen on the back of geopolitical fears over potential supply disruption after US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal as well as supply concerns from Venezuela.

Note that crude oil prices have been witnessing a rising trend of late. In the past one year alone, oil prices have surged more than 50%. Prices have been escalating due to a pick-up in global demand coupled with supply cuts by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia.

This, along with the above developments have meant crude oil reach its highest level since November 2014.

Steadily Rising Crude Oil Prices

Rising crude oil prices is not good news from India's perspective.

As we wrote in one of the editions of The 5 Minute WrapUp...

• Fiscal revenues are at risk. Particularly if the government is forced to consider a cut in fuel excise duties due to a rally in oil prices. In recent times, a sharp jump in excise collections has helped indirect tax collections. Any risk to revenues and subsequent threat to the fiscal deficit target at 3.2% of GDP would require tighter spending cuts.
  
  Secondly, the impact on inflation needs to be monitored. This is narrowing the central bank's scope for further rate cuts.
  
  Lastly, low crude prices were a positive growth impetus through higher discretionary incomes for households and lower input costs for manufacturers and farmers. Part of this benefit is likely to be eroded as retail fuel costs rise. As for corporations, expansion in gross margins caused by falling commodity prices is also likely to wane, pressurising profitability.

You can read the entire article here.

What does rising crude prices mean for stock markets?

Richa Agarwal, editor of Hidden Treasure, tracks the oil and gas sector very closely. She believes the rise in crude oil prices is a bearish sign for stock markets globally. At the same time, any market correction will throw up interesting buying opportunities in small-cap stocks.

This is what she wrote...

• After hitting a low of US$ 30 per barrel in January 2016, prices have more than doubled to US$ 68 in April 2018.
  
  The recent news of Saudi Arabia wanting crude oil prices to touch US$ 100 per barrel doesn't help. The 2008 recession was preceded by crude oil touching US$ 150 per barrel. Any movement upwards can result in a possible downturn for the global market.
  
  While the Hidden Treasure team looks for long-term wealth creators, such macro situations can help to recommend such stocks at a bargain. The ones who keeps calm, when everyone else is losing their heads, will gain the most when the tide turns.