Currency Markets May Stall As Investors Brace For US Jobs Data
The Japanese Yen corrected broadly higher overnight in a move that looked corrective after the currency slid against all of its major counterparts for a second consecutive day, hitting the lowest level in a month. The Australian Dollar faced selling pressure, with prices tracking to front-end bond yields downward to suggest that returning RBA rate cut bets may have been behind the selloff. The priced-in probability of a cut at next month’s meeting is now 18 percent.
Looking ahead, a lull in high-profile European and US event risk may translate into a quiet, consolidative period in the near term as brace for the release of September’s US Employment report on Friday. A payrolls gain of 170k is expected, marking slight acceleration from the 151k increase in August. The on-going fiasco centered on German lender Deutsche Bank (DB) has proven to be a potent driver of risk appetite and may fuel knee-jerk volatility if an eye-catching headline crosses the wires. Rumors of a reduced settlement payout emerged earlier in the week, with CEO John Cryan reportedly due in the US to finalize negotiations.
Asia Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
21:00 |
ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (SEP) |
-1.4% |
- |
6.8% |
|
|
00:30 |
Trade Balance (AUG) |
-2010m |
-2300m |
-2410m |
European Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
|
06:00 |
Factory Orders (MoM) (AUG) |
0.3% |
0.2% |
Medium |
||
|
06:00 |
EUR |
Factory Orders (YoY) (AUG) |
1.6% |
-0.7% |
Medium |
|
|
07:15 |
CPI (MoM) (SEP) |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
Medium |
||
|
07:15 |
CHF |
CPI (YoY) (SEP) |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
Medium |
|
|
07:15 |
CHF |
CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (SEP) |
0.3% |
0.0% |
Low |
|
|
07:15 |
CHF |
CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (SEP) |
0.0% |
0.0% |
Low |
|
|
07:30 |
EUR |
Markit Germany Construction PMI (SEP) |
- |
51.6 |
Low |
|
|
08:10 |
EUR |
Markit Germany Retail PMI (SEP) |
- |
54.1 |
Low |
|
|
08:10 |
EUR |
Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (SEP) |
- |
51.0 |
Medium |
|
|
08:10 |
EUR |
Markit France Retail PMI (SEP) |
- |
53.0 |
Low |
|
|
08:10 |
EUR |
Markit Italy Retail PMI (SEP) |
- |
43.2 |
Low |
|
|
08:30 |
Unit Labor Costs (YoY) (2Q) |
- |
1.9% |
Low |
||
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
Supp 3 |
Supp 2 |
Supp 1 |
Pivot Point |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
Res 3 |
|
1.1123 |
1.1166 |
1.1186 |
1.1209 |
1.1229 |
1.1252 |
1.1295 |
|
|
1.2565 |
1.2650 |
1.2700 |
1.2735 |
1.2785 |
1.2820 |
1.2905 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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