Cryptocurrencies: Approaching An Epic Crash

This is it, cryptologists: A fork in the road, a new frontier for miners around the globe! From the upcoming institution of Bitcoin Cash to mainstream media headlines such as a recent Forbes cover, Bitcoin is out of the shadows and poised for big growth. Right? Posited upcoming boons for Bitcoin and its algorithmic peers include major exchange traded ETFs, additional supply that is expected to provide expansion and liquidity (or neither) and broad integration into retail shopping.

"Cryptocurrency" is no longer a word you feel uncomfortable saying to a moderately educated stranger. That is a problem, given underlying fundamentals. Or maybe the lack there of... Then there's hacking... I digress, fundamentals are so last millennium. My point is that for Bitcoin to be fully integrated into Wall Street or Main Street, as it in the minds and portfolios of the general public, is has to have staying power.

For many years now drug dealers, small online businesses, as well as a large one regularly reported on by highly regarded short seller Marc Cohodes, have accepted Bitcoin as payment. A well documented Papa John's pizza purchase for 10,000 BTC in 2010 was early in the game. 7 years, hundreds of billions of dollars in trades, hundreds of thousands of articles and webcasts, mainstream financial media hype and more has promoted Bitcoin since then. 2017 is the fourth quarter. You can't buy a thing on Amazon (AMZN) or at Wal Mart (WMT ) with Bitcoin. Wall Street is avoiding it like the plague. Why on earth would the biggest businesses in the world be so hesitant with something so revolutionary?

Cryptocurrencies are mined out of digitized thin air and exchanged for money. When the underlying bid dissipates, only growth in popularity due to marketing or expanded acceptance can attract new bidders. Furthermore, cryptocurrency investors are much more likely to make single purchases as opposed to recurring ones make by many stock market investors. There are no "accumulating cryptocurrencies" to pass on to future generations. Medium term either Bitcoin replaces the USD or it becomes essentially worthless. The volume in May and June, that brought Bitcoin from under $1500 to $3000 and other cryptocurrencies many multiples higher than prior trading ranges, was developed economies emptying the clip into digital wallets. It cannot and will not happen on that scale again.

The hype around Bitcoin Cash may send cryptocurrencies surging upward once more, but it will be a fleeting rally. By the end of 2017 that Papa John's pizza (PZZA) deal might not look as bad as a $3000 Bitcoin.

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