Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached during the specified time window.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may only be entered between 8am London time and 5pm New York time today.

Be extremely cautious entering any trades before 7pm London time.

Long Trades

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3844.07 or $3654.29.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trades

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $4115.86 or $4380.89.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that there is a broad confluence of a big psychological round number at $4000.00, a horizontal resistance level at $4115.85, and the highest long-term bearish trend line just above there, currently sitting at about $4200.00. This confluence could hold the price down, and it has, although the supportive area just below has still held so there is no reason to say yet that the bulls are on the defensive. The resistant confluence is going to be even stronger today, with the highest and longest bearish trend line now sitting right on the horizontal resistance level at $4115.86. A break above here would be an extremely bullish sign for Bitcoin.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the FOMC Statement, Projections, and Federal Funds Rate at 7pm London time, followed by the usual press conference. There will also be a release of Crude Oil Inventories earlier at 3:30pm