Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as the bearish price action took place above the resistance level at $4041.33 but below the level at $4380.89.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may only be entered between 8am London time and 5pm New York time today.

Long Trade 1

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3871.42 or $3654.29.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trades

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $4115.86 or $4380.89.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that Bitcoin now has a much more bullish outlook, but the final bearish trend line at $4200.00 and the resistant area around $4000.00 would probably be a difficult test. This is a good description of how things have played out over the past 24 hours, with the price exceeding $4000.00 for a while but ultimately falling back below it, before seeming to print a new higher low generating a new support level at $3871.42.

There is a lot of resistance above, with a broad confluence of a big psychological round number at $4000.00, a horizontal resistance level at $4115.85, and the highest long-term bearish trend line just above there, currently sitting at about $4200.00. This confluence could hold the price down, but underlying conditions are still bullish so the price is unlikely to fall far. Alternatively, a bullish break above $4200.00 would be an extremely bullish sign and probably lead to another test of the all-time high price just under $5000.00.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Building Permits at 1:30pm London time.