Arab-Israelis Deal

*From Monday's Financial Times, the unsurprising news that mixed-gender British fund managers attracted 6% more inflows over the past 3 years than funds managed only by men or only by women. The mixed sex funds also performed better which may be all you need to know.

On Tuesday was a double day for news because of the holiday yesterday. I just want to congratulate Pres. Trump for at least opening the debate on what to do about controlling the unbridled American access to guns in reaction to the Lakeland school shooting. Most stocks are down and I focused mostly on the exceptions. We have news from Germany, Hong Kong, Israel, Egypt, Colombia, Ireland, Britain, Canada, Argentina, Japan, Mexico, Brazil, Jordan, India, Chile, Sweden, China and Russia.

Bank-Insurance

*German-American Pimco of California, owned by Allianz SE of Germany, is one of the firms which have not signed up for the Women in Finance Charter launched 2 years ago by the UK Commons Select Committee on the Treasury. It was one of 33 firms which refused to agree to boost gender diversity in fund management even if it results in better outcomes for their portfolios. AZSEY fell a bit earlier this week as the MeToo ladies dumped its stock.

*Hong Kong's AIA Group (AAGIY) is down 2.7% on Tuesday here but not in its home market. And down 4.11% so far in Feb.

Energy

An explanation of the headline today follows:

*Delek Group is selling $15 bn of Israeli offshore gas from the Tamar and Leviathan fields to private firm Dolphinus Holdings of Egypt under a 10-yr contract. DGRLY is headed by Yitzchak Tshuva, a Misrahi (Arabic-speaking) Israeli whose family origins are in Libya and his diplomacy was rewarded with a very significant link between the two countries, which one Israeli cabinet member called as important as the 1979 peace deal between Sadat and Begin.

For now, the deal is for 64 bn cubic meters of gas to be sold to Egypt over a decade, half from each of the two currently producing Israeli fields. It may also eventually be broader to include reversing the flow of the East Mediterranean gas pipeline across the Sinai Desert which earlier supplied Israel and Jordan with Egyptian gas. An earlier sale of Israeli natural gas to Dophinus of Egypt was signed in 2016 for 3 years and it had to be approved by the Israeli Knesset, or Parliament.

DGRLY is also into offshore drilling off Cyprus while Egypt has its own huge oil field, even bigger than Leviathan, which is being developed by Royal Dutch Shell and ENI. Sub Delek Drilling's head told Reuters “ this is the first deal of potentially more to come.” It is becoming clear that deals are now in order between the Jewish State and Arab countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, smoothed by their common concern about oil and security. Delek stock rose 26.32% on Tuesday, catching up with Tel Aviv which has been reacting to the news since Sunday. It had lost about 30% in value during 2016.

*JPMorgan-Chase downgraded Cosan to neutral from overweight but raised to $13 target price on CZZ stock from $10. It is $11.11 and changes now, up 2.5% from Friday.

*Compugen won a strong recommendation in SeekingAlpha.com earlier this week, from Steven Goldman as an “undervalued disruptive innovation company” working in immune checkpoint regulators to treat cancer and auto-immune diseases. The author is a Canadian lawyer ; we told you first.

*Morgan slashed Ecopetrol to underweight from neutral with no TP. EC on Tuesday reported that its audited oil and gas reserves under US SEC standards were 1.659 bn barrels of oil equivalent, up by 259 mn boe in 2017. This more than replaced production which was 234 mn boe. EC is Colombian.

Drugs

*Morgan also cut its rating of Shire from outperform to neutral. SHPG CEO Flemming Ornskov is chairing a commission to improve diagnosis of rare diseases in children alongside Microsoft, as a rare-disease drug-maker helping itself as well as patients who are diagnosed late. Other participants are smaller drug firms. An accurate diagnosis will require new tests but will cut the stress on families and child patients. Shire fell a whopping 5.35% today.

*Teva launched two strengths of a generic of Solodyn pills against acne in the US. The patent version had sales of $1.50 mn last year. The stock fell on Tuesday in London by 2.6%. Teva's former generics chief Siggi Olafsson has become the new CEO of Jordanian Hikma Pharma which we used to own. Mr. Olafsson was a key supporter of the Teva purchase for $40.5 mn of Allergan generics, cause of the Teva tsoris (grief.) He stepped down from Teva late in 2016 and his replacement, Dibanker Batterjee, did not survive the arrival of another Scandinavian as TEVA CEO, Kåre Schultz. Teva only fell 4.71% earlier this week.

*Mylan has launched a rival combination HIV pill to the one from GlaxoSmithKline on Tuesday. GSK shares lost a fraction over 1%

. *New stock pick Zymeworks, ZYME, was up 5.4% earlier this week because BDC Capital Inc. of Delaware, a US fund, bought a 7.6% stake last week.

*Reckitt Benckiser was sold two years ago after its exit from sublingual opioid therapy, but it turned out to have been smart. RBGLY shares plummeted yesterday in London trading after it reported meh earnings under its new CEO, Rakesh Kapoor, who also issued a 2018 profits warning. We got out in time because I worried about the taxation of the spin-off. RBGLY fell over 4%.

Technology

*Vodafone this year will start offering a drone-tracking system able to take control of unmanned mini-aircraft which may be operated by criminals. It will use radio positioning systems to find the drones built into them. This allows them to be tracked in real time and can

override the operator's control of the drone to change its flight path or force it to land if it is near a prison or an airfield. The drone owner can be identified using its SIM-registration. We own VOD for its nifty divvie and global reach and the potential for a deal with John Malone's Liberty Global telco group (LBTYA sold).

But wow!

*Swedish Autoliv will spin off to shareholders its new electronics firm in Q3 to be called Veoneer. It will supply autonomous driving machines and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). The parent ALV will continue to sell seatbelts and passive safety devices for cars.

*Tencent was tipped as a buy by Saber Capital Management in seekingalpha.com on Tuesday despite it having been its biggest gainer in 2017 when the share price doubled. TCEHY has more than doubled for us but we didn't buy it last year. SCM expects that its stock price can double again if it meets earnings targets according to John Huber, the author, who is based in North Carolina.

In rivalry with Alibaba, Tencent has bought a stake in online retailer JD.Com, French grocery chain Carrefour which operates in China, WalmartHyonghui Superstores, apparel chain Vipshop, furniture retailer Heilan Home, mall operator Wanda Commercial, and Bubugao, a grocery chain. BABA has also bought into troubled Wanda, plus Suning.com, Sanjiang Shopping Club, Intime Retail,

Hong Kong's Lianhao Supermarket, and furniture retailer Easy home. Alibaba owns Alipay while TCEHY has a payment app of its own on the We-chat site. The rivalry is very expensive and 85% of Chinese buy in normal stores rather than online.

Tencent also invested alongside others in a $130 mn pre-IPO round for Kakao, a South Korean messaging firm's free-standing gaming unit, which will probably be listed this year.

*Argentine e-commerce firm Mercado Libre rose 1.11% on Tuesday maybe because it is not in the Chinese internet stadium, but only in Latin America.

*Robot maker Fanuc fell in Tokyo trading on Tuesday by 2.5%. FANUY robots are used mainly but not exclusively in making autos.

*New stock pick Hollysys Automation Technologies fell earlier this week, despite Luxembourg fund manager Eastspring Investments Ltd reporting to our SEC that it had acquired 5.42% of HOLI.

*But Tower Semiconductor of Israel which sells fabs to mostly Japanese firms rose 1.16% on Yen strength against the dollar and the shekel. It was up to a new high of $34.28 at the opening but then fell back. Yitzchak Tshuva (the animator of Delek Group written up above) bought 4.93% of TSEM according to a report filed with our SEC on Tuesday on behalf of entities he controls, not just DGRLY but also partner s hips, pension plans, and trust funds of Phoenix Holding Ltd, his Israeli insurance firm.

Industrials

*MMC Norilsk Nickel is losing a top shareholder, Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, who is stepping down as president of Hong Kong- and London-listed EN+ and Rusal, the leading aluminum producer in Russia. Rusal owns 28% of NILSY, whereas Vladimir Potanin owns 30.4%. The pair has been fighting for years to take control of NILSY after a 5-yr 2012 lockup “Framework Agreement” by which the Kremlin forced them to share power.

The current battle results from a third oligarch, Roman Abramovich, buyer of a 6% stake, wanting to sell his reduced share of Norilsk, now about 5% to Potanin for $234/sh. This led to the other two suing each other in London, where the stock is HQ'd and traded. NILSY plans to increase its capital spending at the expense of its hyper-generous dividend which in the end accounted for half of Rusal's cash flow. Mr. Deripaska, who was named on the US Russian oligarch list last week will devote his full time to fighting the other two guys.

NILSY issued a statement yesterday that business is continuing as usual and replacements have been found for the two Deripaska board members. Rusal also issued a statement that any sale by Abramovich will be invalid but the lockup has expired. The Russian share is equal to 10 ADRs which trade at under $20. The ADR rose 2.75% on Tuesday.

*Soquimich of Chile was up 1.4% on Tuesday on upbeat assessments of what its 33% stock sale will produce. Seller Nutrien of Canada is up 1.63% in tandem. NTR which was formed Jan 1 via a merger of our former Agrium with Potash has to sell SQM for anti-trust reasons.

*Cemex increased its construction materials sales sites bearing the Construrama label to 2,296 in Latin America last year, with new sites, writes Eduardo Garcia in sentidocomun.co.mx earlier this week. CX fell 2.8% on Tuesday.

*Brazilian sugar refiner Cosan which makes ethanol from sugar cane waste jumped 4.25% on Tuesday before falling back a bit. It reported to the SEC last week that Renaissance Capital has bought 7.8% of its stock but there may be another buyer of CZZ. Cf funds below.

Funds

*Mark Mobius is starting a new fund management company to invest in emerging markets focusing on environmental, social, and governance leaders. It is licensed in London and Luxembourg according to Indian business news site Livemint, reporting from Mumbai. He is the long-term guru of Templeton Emerging Markets Funds EMF and TEI (for stocks and income resp.) which I only bought into after his retirement as I know him from college.

Our Azure Power Global Ltd, NYSE-AZRE opened up 2.5% at $16.51 from what I think was Indian buying. Mobius may also have triggered the price jump in Cosan which is of course into green energy.

*US investors who want to buy into Guy Spier's Aquamarine Fund have to get through the Charles Schwab obstacle course for alternative investments, as it is not a publicly traded company according to the brokerage. You need to work with a human being not on-line or call Mark at 212 716 1350. I have often writte n about this fund here because my husband bought into it when he and Guy were both on the board of the NY Oxford Alumni Assn, before Guy moved to Switzerland. For some reason, the fund mailing address is 100 Cambridge St, 14th Fl, Boston MA 02114.

*Mexican REIT Fibra Uno reported no damage to its properties from the latest earthquake in southern Mexico. FBASF stock fell 2.5% in Mexico City on the news, because investors had been hoping for an insurance windfall.

*Bonus stock Kennedy Wilson hit $17 on Tuesday. We kept the US version of the REIT after it merged its Euroland REIT into its parent. It will report on 2017 and Q4 Thursday the 23rd after the close and the consensus forecast is good news—a 15% rise in sales and a 400% rise in GAAP earnings

Disclosure: None.

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Comments

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Alpha Stockman 6 years ago Member's comment

Any thoughts on Gazprom?

Gary Anderson 6 years ago Contributor's comment

Interesting article. Perhaps Israel should reach out to others in the middle East. We hope the days of Oded Yinon are passing in favor of peace.

NRA Forever 6 years ago Member's comment

Perhaps, though war can be good for business.

Alexis Renault 6 years ago Member's comment

Who is Oded Yinon?

Dick Kaplan 6 years ago Member's comment

He was a nutjob and extremist who once wrote a paper in the early 80s essentially advocating for regime change in the area and a sort of "manifest destiny" for Israel that was pure fantasy. He utlizied a lot of fear tactics and conspiracy theories to push his points. You can learn more on wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yinon_Plan

Vivian Lewis 6 years ago Contributor's comment

thanks. it sure seems to make sense from the USA