Forecasts For The Weeks Of August 29 And September 5
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of August 29 |
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August 29 |
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Personal Income - July |
0.4% |
0.2 |
0.4 |
|
Personal Spending |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
PCE Price Index |
0.1 |
0.1 |
||
Core PCE Price Index |
0.2 |
0.1 |
||
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
-1.3 |
-1.3 |
||
August 30 |
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S&P Case/Shiller Index - June |
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Twenty City M/M |
1.0% |
0.9 |
||
Twenty City M/M - SA |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
|
Twenty City Y/Y |
5.3 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
|
Consumer Confidence - August |
97.1 |
97.3 |
97.3 |
|
August 31 |
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ADP Employment Report - August |
180K |
179 |
175 |
|
Chicago PMI |
54.4 |
55.8 |
54.2 |
|
Pending Home Sales Index - Aug |
111.1 |
111.0 |
111.2 |
|
September 1 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
264K |
261 |
265 |
|
Productivity - Q2 (r) |
-0.6% |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
|
Unit Labor Costs |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
|
ISM (Mfg) - August |
52.3 |
52.6 |
52.2 |
|
Construction Spending - July |
0.6% |
-0.6 |
0.6 |
|
Auto Sales* - August |
17.4M |
17.9 |
17.1 |
|
Car Sales |
6.9 |
7.1 |
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Truck Sales |
10.6 |
10.8 |
||
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence |
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September 2 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls - August |
190K |
255 |
175 |
|
Private |
180 |
217 |
||
Unemployment |
4.8% |
4.9 |
4.8 |
|
Average Workweek |
34.4HR |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services |
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International Trade - July |
-$39.6B |
-44.5 |
-41.3 |
|
Factory Orders - June |
2.2 |
-1.5 |
2.0 |
|
Durable Goods Orders |
4.4 |
-3.9 |
||
Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.0 |
1.0 |
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Week of September 5 |
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September 6 |
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PMI Services Index - August |
51.2 |
50.9 |
||
ISM Services - August |
55.5 |
55.5 |
55.6 |
|
September 7 |
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JOLTS - July |
5.635M |
5.624 |
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September 8 |
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Consumer Credit - July |
$15.2B |
12.3 |
15.4 |
|
September 9 |
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Wholesale Inventories - July |
0.1% |
0.3 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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