Tuesday, January 2, 2018 8:02 PM EDT
Recognizing strengths and weaknesses among primary asset classes is the core goal of our Tactical Trend strategy. The strategy seeks to identify relative strength and trend strength in an attempt to allocate capital to the strongest asset classes while underweighting or eliminating exposure to the weaker asset classes. We perform rigorous surveillance on the following asset classes: US equities, international equities, fixed-income, commodities, and cash. A mix of these asset classes make up 100% of Tactical Trend’s total allocation at any given point in time.
Year-to-date our allocation has not shifted much, with both domestic and international equities trading well and continuing to exhibit asset class leadership. As previously noted, political and global headlines may dominate the newswires, but equity markets and prices have enjoyed a steady bid, with pullbacks being historically shallow. In our analysis, we try to spend twice as much research time on the opposite side of our trade as we do on our position. So what currently bothers us? Most of our concern in Tactical Trend revolves around our secondary indicators, which are sentiment-driven. The 4th-quarter bullish confidence numbers among both individual investors and professional money managers have continued to rise and have reached levels that caused the market to pause or correct in the past. This situation can also be viewed through the lens of the very low readings of the CBOE put/call ratio, which tells us that call buyers are dominating the action. We will continue to monitor and analyze these indicators.
US Equity: (63%) Solid broad market exposure through QQQ & RSP. Bullish moves in Transports, Basic Materials, and Consumer Discretionary.
International Equity: (30%) Primary exposure in Asia with smaller additions in Latin America. Japan and our emerging-market positions have had a strong year but have shown some recent waning of momentum.
Fixed Income: (0%) No position at this time
Commodities: (0%) No positions at this time
Cash: (7%)
Disclaimer: The preceding was provided by Cumberland Advisors, Home Office: One Sarasota Tower, 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303, Sarasota, FL 34236; New Jersey Office: 614 Landis Ave, Vineland, NJ ...
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Disclaimer: The preceding was provided by Cumberland Advisors, Home Office: One Sarasota Tower, 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303, Sarasota, FL 34236; New Jersey Office: 614 Landis Ave, Vineland, NJ 08360. 1-800-257-7013. This report has been derived from information considered reliable, but it cannot be guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. For a list of all equity sales/purchases for the past year, please contact Therese Pantalione at 1-800-257-7013, ext. 315. This report is currently about 1700 pages in length. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability are an indication of future performance. This does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation or recommendation of an offer to buy or sell any securities directly or indirectly herein. Cumberland Advisors supervises over $2.4 billion in separate account assets for individuals, institutions, retirement plans, government entities, and cash-management portfolios. Cumberland manages portfolios for clients in 48 states, the District of Columbia and in countries outside the U.S. Cumberland Advisors is an SEC registered investment adviser. For further information about Cumberland Advisors, please visit our website at www.cumber.com. Please feel free to forward this Commentary (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. CONFIDENTIAL: This e-mail, including its contents and attachments, if any, are confidential. If you are not the named recipient please notify the sender and immediately delete it. Copyright and any other intellectual property rights in its contents are the sole property of Cumberland Advisors. E-mail transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which arise as a result of e-mail transmission. If verification is required please request a hard-copy version. It is important that you do not forward full account numbers, tax identification numbers or confidential personal information via email unless it is password protected Although we routinely screen for viruses, addressees should check this e-mail and any attachments for viruses. We make no representation or warranty as to the absence of viruses in this e-mail or any attachments. Please note that to ensure regulatory compliance and for the protection of our customers and business, your e-mail message is not private in that it is subject to review by the firm, its officers, agents, employees, and by federal or state regulatory authorities including but not limited to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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Cumberland Advisors
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