Use Flexible Goals In An Uncertain Economy

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Successful executives work hard to hit their goals. But in top-performing organizations, goals are flexible.

“Flexible” doesn't mean “not taken seriously,” as when a company abandons goals it is not achieving, or dials down its goals to whatever it is actually accomplishing. These are clearly dysfunctional behaviors.

But too much dedication to a goal can also be destructive; it’s one of the worst risks of the classic hard-charging leader. Doggedly pursuing goals that cannot be achieved, or no longer should be achieved, wastes resources. Here’s a process for reevaluating goals along the way.

Let’s use an example. A credit union has set a goal for ten percent gain in car loan originations. In the flexible goals approach, the goal isn’t sufficient for planning; the organization also records assumptions behind the goals.

For a car loan growth goal, the assumptions might begin with a car sales forecast. The second assumption may relate to market share, such as assuming that the credit union could get more loan applications from current members if it better-communicated offerings. Finally, some sense of production possibilities is behind most goals, so the third assumption could be that existing staff members could make more loans thanks to new technology recently installed.

Come the first quarter of the year, most businesses compare actual to plan, but that’s not where I would begin. Instead, ask how the assumptions have worked out. First, what have car sales been doing? Up as projected, or more so or less so? Second, look at data on credit union members using the institution for their car loans. Did new communications efforts actually result in more inquiries or loan applications? Third, has the new technology actually increased productivity of the loan processing team?

With that background, the leadership is ready to evaluate how the organization is doing on its goals. If hitting its goals dead center, the board can look at the assumptions and ask whether results could have been even better. That would be the case if car sales had increased above forecast, or if the communications plan been particularly successful. Perhaps the goal for the rest of the year should be adjusted upward.

If the credit union missed its goal in the first quarter, look at those assumptions. If the economy hurt sales, then you can’t blame staff for missing the goals. But you may want to limit resources dedicated to the effort. If members were not persuaded to apply for car loans at the credit union, consider whether this is a hopeless project or whether a different communications approach could work. And if applications were made but the underwriting department couldn’t process loans promptly, then that technology assumption needs adjustment.

Managing an enterprise, whether a business or non-profit or government agency, is complicated. Exceeding goals does not necessarily imply more resources for that area, just as failing to meet a goal does not always dictate cutting resources. The allocation of capital, staff, and expenses must be about the future, not the past. The great advantage of evaluating assumptions, not just goals, is a better understanding of opportunities in the future.

The sooner an organization adjusts to reality, the better off it is. So adjustment of goals, due to a reevaluation of assumptions, should take place regularly, like once a quarter, and not be delayed until the annual planning session. However, it’s not wise to careen from one approach to another. The staff needs some stability. That stability begins with the mission and core value, which should not change frequently. Then adjustment of goals should usually be at the margin: a little more here, and a little less there. Occasionally a large course correction will be necessary, but if this happens every year, then leadership needs to calm down.

A lot can go wrong with assumptions. On the external side of the enterprise, the economy can change in unexpected ways. Technological change can occur faster or slower than expected or in a surprising direction. Social attitudes can swing to favor a business—or not. Government regulations and taxes can change. And competition can throw a monkey wrench into well-constructed plans.

Internally, employees may not deliver because the task is harder than expected. Or another priority may have absorbed all available time and talent. Planning is an imprecise activity; sometimes the people are doing great work but the plans were wrong.

Behind this approach to flexible goals is humility. The classic leader who never doubts the plan will sometimes achieve great things due to perseverance—and sometimes waste years on hopeless causes. Humility about our ability to know the future enables an organization to capture potential gains while protecting itself from the risks of an uncertain world.

Disclosure: Learn about my economics and business consulting. To get my free monthly newsletter,  more

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