For folks who can remember all the way back to last fall, the promise was that a huge boom in investment would lead to more rapid productivity growth. Higher productivity would mean pay would be close to 10 percent higher than in the baseline scenario after a decade.

Well, the data disagree. We got new data on capital goods orders yesterday. Here's the picture.

(Click on image to enlarge)

If you see a boom here since the tax cut, you may want to get the prescription on your glasses checked. It's not a terrible story, but we're still below the pre-recesson peaks and even the levels reached during the horrible Obama years. Oh well, at least rich people got lots of money out of the deal.