E Market Briefing For Monday, Dec. 3

Ripples in markets are not as confounding as 'ripples in the Earth', which actually requires taking at least note of, whether associated with the horrific Alaskan earthquake or not. In Argentina, which incidentally 'also' had a 'not so huge' temblor during the start of the G20 gathering; we have the obvious (and important) signing of the 'new NAFTA' (President Trump prefers not to call it that; but that is what is really amounts to); and optimism ahead of the final outcome (I've though a deal was basically structured with China during or after a little-discussed trip by Dr. Henry Kissinger to Beijing recently).  

  

While this comment is prepared before all is known, the market essentially it seems has discounted much of the optimism ahead of time, which suggests a more muted response to a favorable outcome; or a devastating one in the event things fall apart in utter failure (which is highly unlikely). Saturday we got a communique (at least the 'draft' is known); which omits 'protectionism' as a topic, but does touch upon 'climate change' (which even Trump sort of recognizes; as long as one doesn't dare say 'global warming'). The member states had to sign-off on this 'communique' perhaps later on in the day.  

While we know the alternating views about 'tonight's dinner' with China; this market has already moved up to levels perhaps anticipating more than it will get; at least in the near-term. If so; the response other than 'relief', may well tend to be muted beyond; setting up a decent but not explosive seasonal lift if nothing untoward occurs.  

  

Regardless, the market pattern can be disrupted within sectors impacted by either the Chinese tariff talks; or for instance any Congressional blockage of weapons sales to Saudi Arabia; especially as relates to defense industries. I nevertheless have felt the S&P was working for two weeks to set up rallies, even if they're not particularly sustainable, and struggle into early 2019.  

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