Goldman thinks the labor market is going to overheat materially in 2018, inflation pressures are going to materialize, and growth is going to be above-trend thanks to hurricane reconstruction activity (ahem, broken windows) and Republicans cramming through tax cuts in some form or another.

That, Jan Hatzius and company figure, will prompt the Fed to deliver four hikes in 2018, in addition to the December hike. That’s above the median in the September dots and above market forwards as well.

On Goldman’s read, the Fed has been trying to “tap lightly on the brakes” with a series of hikes, but this has turned out to be one of those situations where someone apparently cut the brake line. “Although this path of tightening came as a significant hawkish surprise to financial markets, it proved too little to achieve the desired tightening in broader financial conditions,” Goldman writes, adding that “instead, our financial conditions index (FCI) has eased meaningfully over the last year.”

And so, unable to stop the train, the unemployment rate continued to dive to even more unsustainable levels while the economy picked up still more steam. “This is not how Fed officials envisioned 2017 drawing to a close,” Goldman goes on to write.

With the economy rolling along and growing at a rate that’s ahead of GS’s estimate of the long-term potential growth rate and well ahead of its short-term potential rate, the bank figures that between rebuilding that which hurricanes destroyed and former employee Gary Cohn coming through on tax reform (and then, if media reports are any indication, hightailing it out of dodge before the administration crashes and burns), there’s more upside from here. Here’s Goldman’s take on the boost from tax reform:

And it’s not just specialty items (if you will) driving the economy onward and upward. Goldman also says “the fundamental picture” should “remain encouraging” with healthy consumption growth and job creation, etc. etc. The bottom line: Goldman sees GDP growth of 2.5% in 2018 Y/Y, or 2.3% on a Q4/Q4 basis.

They’ve revised their forecast for the unemployment rate even lower, noting that “a rate in the mid-3’s would complete an evolution over the current cycle from the weakest labor market in postwar US history to one of the tightest [and] in fact, such a scenario would take the US labor market into territory almost never seen outside of a major wartime mobilization.”

As for inflation, suffice to say that Goldman isn’t ready throw in the towel in favor of a Bezos-based world view, which shouldn’t exactly come as a surprise because as you’ll recall, Goldman found earlier this year that the “Amazon effect” is actually less pronounced in terms of its deflationary impact than the “Walmart effect” of yesteryear. Ultimately, GS sees inflation picking back up and doesn’t necessarily think an “obsession” with “the mundane effects of idiosyncratic, acyclical, and ultimately transitory influences on core prices” is warranted. To wit:

Putting this altogether in terms of what it portends for the Fed – and thereby coming full circle to what we said here at the outset – Goldman sees a hike in December and four more in 2018, which would take funds to 2.25-2.5%. Here’s where Goldman thinks the market has it wrong:

So that’s all fine and good, but needless to say, if all of those pieces don’t fall into place and the Fed actually does decide to go with four hikes, it’s conceivable that they will hike us right into a recession and/or prompt a disorderly unwind of trades that are to a certain extent psychologically dependent on the Fed not surprising anyone.