Thursday, February 15, 2018 2:20 PM EDT
This morning’s report on manufacturing activity in the New York area provides one of the first reads on how business activity is trending for the month of February, and the results were a bit weaker than expected. While economists were expecting the headline General Business Conditions index for the month of February to increase slightly from last month’s reading of 17.7, the actual reading missed to the downside coming in at 13.1. While the current conditions index (dark blue line) declined for the fourth straight month, the index for expected conditions six-months out rose for the fourth time in five months, hitting its highest level since January 2012.Eventually, this divergence has to resolve itself; the only question is in which direction that happens.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The table below breaks down this month’s report by each of its sub-sectors.In terms of current conditions, despite the decline in the headline index, most of the components actually increased this month. Conversely, while the index of General Business conditions for six months out increased, most of the subcomponents declined.
(Click on image to enlarge)
With all the focus on inflation recently, we wanted to highlight a few of the components in this month’s report that could impact prices. The first is Delivery Times.While the current conditions index is well off its recent highs, the index for six months out rose to its highest level in the history of the survey. Extended delivery times can often be a sign of supply problems which can have inflationary implications down the line.
The Prices Paid components of this month’s report also remain elevated with the current conditions index at its highest level since mid-2012.
Similarly, Prices Received is also elevated as the current conditions component remains right near its highest level since mid-2012 as well. Based on trends in Prices Received as well as the indicators above, it doesn’t appear as though any upward pressure in prices is going to abate any time soon.
Disclaimer: All information, data and analysis contained in the Site or the Service are provided “AS IS” and without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. All information, ...
more
Disclaimer: All information, data and analysis contained in the Site or the Service are provided “AS IS” and without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. All information, data and analysis provided by the Site or the Service is for informational and educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell a security or basket of securities, including but not limited to equities, options and other derivative products, fixed income products, and ETFs. Bespoke believes all information, data and analysis contained in the Service to be accurate, but does not guarantee its accuracy. Under no circumstances, including, but not limited to, negligence, shall Bespoke, any of Bespoke´s affiliates, employees, or other third party data providers be liable to you for direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, special, punitive or exemplary damages even if an authorized Bespoke representative has been advised specifically of the possibility of such damages, arising from the use of or inability to use the Site or the Service, such as, but not limited to, losses, loss of revenue, anticipated profits or lost business. Applicable law may not allow the limitation or exclusion of liability or incidental or consequential damages. In no event shall Bespoke´s total liability to you for all damages, losses, and causes and action (whether in contract or tort, including but not limited to negligence) exceed the amount paid by you, if any, for accessing this Site or using the Service. All opinions expressed on this Site are subject to change without notice, and you should always obtain current information and perform appropriate due diligence before making trades or investment decisions. Bespoke, any of Bespoke´s affiliates, employees, or other third party data providers may have long or short positions in the securities discussed in the Service and may purchase or sell such securities without notice. Bespoke uses various methods to evaluate investments which may, at times, produce contradictory recommendations with respect to the same securities. When evaluating the results of prior Bespoke recommendations or Bespoke performance rankings, you should also consider that Bespoke may modify the methods it uses to evaluate investment opportunities from time to time. For this and for many other reasons, the performance of Bespoke´s past recommendations or investments is not a guarantee of future results.
The securities mentioned in this Site or in the Service may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, nor be suitable for all types of investors; their value and income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates or other factors. Please view Bespoke’s Form ADV here.
less
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.