A Matter Of Life And Debt

Sit down. It’s time we had a serious talk. I hate to tell you this. But we’re broke.

By “we,” I mean the US, Canada, Germany, Japan, and the UK. In fact, most of the developed world is holding historical levels of debt. Only a handful of relatively small countries are living within their means.

That means we’re going to have to cut back a little. That vacation you wanted? Probably not. We’re going to have to wait a few years for that new car. Maybe the kids won’t get to go to their first-choice college. No, we can’t discuss this at that new restaurant everybody’s talking about. Like I said, we’re broke.

Why? That’s easy. The world is aging.

Aging Is the Driver of Debt

The biggest budget component of the US and other developed countries’ is related to aging and related diseases. In the US, this is primarily Social Security and Medicare. Together, they make up more than half the total budget.

The two programs are more closely linked than most people realize. This is because most people don’t choose to retire. Rather, they are forced to become dependent by health problems or employer mandate. But even employer-mandated retirements are about health. Few talk about it, but older workers raise insurance pool costs. It’s cheaper to get rid of old workers than pay higher insurance rates.

It’s helpful to think about national debt in terms of households. For some reason, people don’t seem to take national budgets and debts seriously. They think that governments will be able to borrow forever to maintain popular spending programs.

But even governments run out of credit at some point. There’s no national credit card that can be cancelled. There is, however, a limit on how much governments can borrow. Greece, for example, can no longer borrow at low prices. That’s because lenders don’t trust the country to make payments on time. Eventually, the US and other major countries will reach that same point.

If you don’t believe me, read the 2017 Congressional Budget Report. The CBO recognizes aging as the driver of the debt and warns that the bill is coming due. That, in the words of the report, would be a fiscal crisis.

Specifically, it states, “The amount of debt that is projected under the extended baseline would reduce national saving and income in the long term; increase the government’s interest costs, putting more pressure on the rest of the budget; limit lawmakers’ ability to respond to unforeseen events; and increase the likelihood of a fiscal crisis, an occurrence in which investors become unwilling to finance a government’s borrowing unless they are compensated with very high interest rates.”

It's understandable that politicians are unwilling to tackle the growing cost of the aged. We’re talking about the well-being of older people after all. No one is willing to push grandparents over a cliff. No one.

Moreover, older people make up a powerful voting bloc. Americans may be divided on a lot of issues, but older people of all political persuasions are united on the topics of Medicare and Social Security. So the debt is not likely to be repaid soon.

Borrowing, at times, is justified. Unexpected catastrophes may warrant borrowing. Spending on infrastructure that increases wealth is also rational.

But today, most borrowed money is used to pay routine expenses. That’s like putting the groceries, water, power, and normal medical bills on credit cards but only paying the interest charges. Every month, the finance charges grow, making it ever more difficult to get out of debt.

Worse, the cost of age-related diseases will continue to go up for decades. Even if the president manages to increase economic growth permanently, it won’t be enough to counter the cost of a growing aged population.

That means the political conflict over spending priorities is going to get worse. The current demands for additional healthcare spending will intensify as cash-strapped agencies struggle.

If you’re interested, you can watch the debts of the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, and Germany grow in real time. If I’ve left out a country of interest, check out the World Debt Clock. It keeps track of almost 50 national debts.

I realize, by the way, that this is a depressing issue. It’s so depressing, in fact, that many people and most politicians pretend it doesn’t exist. Media coverage of political issues often focuses on those who will be hurt if government doesn’t spend more money. Rarely does the media address the painful consequences of widespread debt crises or the terrible impact it will have on younger people.

Aging Is a Solvable Problem

I no longer believe that it’s possible to fix budgets politically. Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan and others have come to the same conclusion. To solve the financial challenge of population aging, called the gray tsunami by demographers, we must fix aging itself.

Fortunately, there are biotechnologies in the pipeline now with the potential to create a new and far better world. Some are nearly unbelievable. The scientists are, in fact, doing their part. However, there are many ways for the rest of us to help implement their solutions.

One is to invest in companies that have biotech solutions to age-related disease. Another is to tell your elected officials to reform the processes that are slowing medical progress. Or you could just talk to your family and friends. Tell them that aging is a solvable problem. When enough of us demand it, the problem will be solved.

From the TransTech Digest research team: To learn more about Patrick’s Transformational Technology Alert research advisory at Mauldin Economics, 

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