Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of February 13

February 14

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January

105

105.8

104.5

Producer Price Index - January

0.2%

0.3

0.3

Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services)

0.2

0.1

0.2

February 15

Consumer Price Index - January

0.3%

0.3

0.3

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

0.2

Retail Sales - January

0.2%

0.6

0.1

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.5

0.2

0.4

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

8

6.5

7.5

NAHB Index - February

68

67

68

Industrial Production - January

0.1%

0.8

0.0

Capacity Utilization

75.5

75.5

75.5

Manufacturing Output

0.2

0.2

0.2

Business Inventories - December

0.4%

0.7

0.4

February 16

Initial Unemployment Claims

250K

234

246

Housing Starts - January

1.224M

1.226

1.232

Building Permits

1.235

1.210

1.233

Philadelphia Fed Survey

18.5

23.6

19.3

February 17

Leading Indicators - January

0.2%

0.5

0.4

Week of February 20

February 21

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

54.8

55.0

February 22

Existing Home Sales - January

5.450M

5.490

February 23

Initial Unemployment Claims

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.14

0.14

FHFA Housing Market Index - December

0.4%

0.5

PMI Services Flash Index

54.0%

53.9

February 24

New Home Sales - January

560K

536

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (r)

96.4

95.7