Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of September 24 And October 1
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of September 24 |
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September 25 |
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Chicago Fed National Manufacturing Index - August |
0.20 |
0.13 |
0.20 |
|
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
29.0 |
30.9 |
31.2 |
|
September 25 |
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S&P Case/Shiller Index - July |
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Twenty City M/M |
0.5% |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
Twenty City M/M - SA |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
Twenty City Y/Y |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
|
Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA |
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FHFA Home Price Index - July |
0.3% |
0.2 |
0.3 |
|
Consumer Confidence - September |
131.7 |
133.4 |
131.7 |
|
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
19 |
24 |
20 |
|
September 26 |
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New Home Sales - August |
630K |
627 |
630 |
|
|
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September 27 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
305K |
201 |
210 |
|
GDP - Q2 |
4.2% |
4.2 |
4.3 |
|
GDP Implicit Price Deflator |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
|
International Trade in Goods - August |
-72.0 |
-72.2 |
-70.8 |
|
Wholesale Inventories - August (p) |
0.3% |
0.6 |
0.2 |
|
Pending Home Sale Index - Aug |
106.2 |
106.2 |
106.4 |
|
September 28 |
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Personal Income - August |
0.4% |
0.3 |
0.4 |
|
Personal Spending |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
Chicago PMI - September |
62.0 |
63.6 |
62.0 |
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (r) |
100.8 |
100.8 |
108.0 |
|
Week of October 1 |
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October 1 |
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ISM (Mfg) - Sept |
59.8 |
61.3 |
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Construction Spending - August |
0.5% |
0.1 |
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October 2 |
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Auto Sales* - September |
16.9M |
16.72 |
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Car Sales |
5.2 |
5.14 |
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Truck Sales |
11.7 |
11.58 |
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*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence |
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October 3 |
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ADP Employment Report - September |
195K |
163 |
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ISM Services - September |
58.0 |
58.5 |
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October 4 |
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Factory Orders - August |
0.8% |
-0.8 |
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Durable Goods Orders |
1.5 |
-1.7 |
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Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.3 |
0.2 |
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October 5 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls - September |
195K |
201 |
||
Private |
190 |
204 |
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Manufacturing |
10 |
-3 |
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Unemployment |
3.9% |
3.9 |
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Average Workweek |
34.5HR |
34.5 |
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Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.4 |
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International Trade - August |
-$49.7B |
-50.1 |
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Consumer Credit - August |
$15.0B |
16.6 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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