Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 23 And October 30
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of October 23 |
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October 23 |
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index |
-0.10% |
-0.31 |
-0.10 |
|
October 24 |
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PMI Manufacturing Flash Index |
53.3 |
53.1 |
53.4 |
|
PMI Services Flash Index |
55.1 |
55.3 |
55.2 |
|
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
21 |
19 |
20 |
|
October 25 |
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Durable Goods Sales - September |
1.0% |
2.0 |
1.0 |
|
FHFA House Price Index - August |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
|
New Home Sales - September |
550K |
560 |
555 |
|
October 26 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
240K |
222 |
235 |
|
International Trade in Goods |
-$63.9B |
-62.9 |
-64.0 |
|
Pending Home Sale Index - September |
107.0 |
106.3 |
106.8 |
|
October 27 |
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GDP - Q3 (a) |
2.6% |
3.1 |
2.5 |
|
GDP Implicit Price Deflator |
1.8 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - October (r) |
101.1 |
101.1 |
101.1 |
|
Week of October 30 |
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October 30 |
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Personal Income - September |
0.4% |
0.2 |
||
Personal Spending |
0.9 |
0.1 |
||
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
21.3 |
21.3 |
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October 31 |
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Employment Cost Index - Q3 |
0.6% |
0.5 |
||
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y |
2.4 |
2.4 |
||
S&P Case/Shiller Index - August |
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Twenty City M/M |
0.6% |
0.7 |
||
Twenty City M/M - SA |
0.2 |
0.3 |
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Twenty City Y/Y |
6.0 |
5.8 |
||
Chicago PMI |
59.8 |
65.2 |
||
Consumer Confidence |
120.5 |
119.8 |
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November 1 |
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Auto Sales* - September |
17.47K |
18.57 |
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Car Sales |
6.31 |
6.81 |
||
Truck Sales |
11.16 |
11.76 |
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*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence |
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ISM (Mfg) - October |
59.5 |
60.8 |
||
Construction Spending - September |
0.5 |
|||
FMOC |
1.125% |
1.125 |
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November 3 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls - October |
350K |
-33 |
||
Private |
340 |
-40 |
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Unemployment |
4.4% |
4.2 |
||
Average Workweek |
34.4HR |
34.4 |
||
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.5 |
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*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services |
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International Trade - September |
-$43.4B |
-42.4 |
||
PMI Services Index |
59.8 |
|||
ISM Services - October |
58.8 |
59.8 |
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Factory Orders - September |
0.70% |
1.2 |
||
Durable Goods Orders |
1.0 |
2.0 |
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Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.3 |
0.4 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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