Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of November 27 And December 4
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of November 27 |
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November 27 |
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New Home Sales - October |
625K |
667 |
620 |
|
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
25.0 |
27.6 |
24.5 |
|
November 28 |
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International Trade in Goods - October |
-$66.0B |
-64.1 |
-65.0 |
|
FHFA Housing Price Index - Sept |
0.5% |
0.7 |
0.6 |
|
S&P Case/Shiller Index - September |
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Twenty City M/M |
0.4% |
0.4 |
0.4 |
|
Twenty City M/M - SA |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
|
Twenty City Y/Y |
6.2 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
|
Consumer Confidence - November |
126.3 |
125.9 |
124.3 |
|
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
15 |
12 |
15 |
|
November 29 |
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GDP - Q2 (r) |
3.2% |
3.0 |
3.3 |
|
GDP Implicit Price Deflator |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
|
Pending Home Sale Index - October |
107.0 |
106.0 |
107.1 |
|
November 30 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
240K |
239 |
240 |
|
Personal Income - October |
0.3% |
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
Personal Spending |
0.3 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
|
Chicago PMI |
63.8 |
66.2 |
64.0 |
|
December 1 |
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Auto Sales* - November |
17.6M |
18.1 |
17..6 |
|
Car Sales |
6.4 |
6.6 |
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Truck Sales |
11.2 |
11.5 |
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*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence |
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PMI Manufacturing Index - November |
53.8 |
53.8 |
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ISM (Mfg) - November |
58.4 |
58.7 |
58.4 |
|
Construction Spending - October |
0.6% |
0.3 |
0.5 |
|
Week of December 4 |
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December 4 |
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Factory Orders - October |
-0.4% |
1.4 |
||
Durable Goods Orders |
-1.2 |
2.0 |
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Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.4 |
0.8 |
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December 5 |
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International Trade - October |
-$45.0B |
-43.5 |
||
PMI Services Index |
54.7 |
54.7 |
||
ISM Services - November |
59.6 |
60.1 |
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December 6 |
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ADP Employment Report - November |
235K |
235.0 |
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Productivity - Q3 (r) |
3.2% |
3.0 |
||
Unit Labor Costs |
0.3 |
0.5 |
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December 7 |
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Consumer Credit - October |
$18.0B |
20.8 |
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December 8 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls - November |
250K |
261K |
||
Private |
245 |
252 |
||
Manufacturing |
20 |
24 |
||
Unemployment |
4.0% |
4.1 |
||
Average Workweek |
34.4Hr |
34.4 |
||
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.0 |
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Dec (p) |
98.8 |
98.5 |
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Wholesale Inventories - October |
0.3% |
0.3 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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