Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 24 And July 31
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of July 24 |
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July 24 |
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PMI Manufacturing Flash Index |
52.0 |
52.0 |
52.0 |
|
PMI Services Flash Index |
54.2 |
54.2 |
54.1 |
|
Existing Home Sales - June |
5.510M |
5.620 |
5.580 |
|
July 25 |
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FHFA Home Price Index - May |
0.4% |
0.5 |
0.6 |
|
S&P Case/Shiller Index - May |
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Twenty City M/M |
1.0% |
0.9 |
0.8 |
|
Twenty City M/M - SA |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
Twenty City Y/Y |
6.0 |
5.7 |
5.8 |
|
Consumer Confidence - July |
117.7 |
118.9 |
117.0 |
|
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
7 |
7 |
8 |
|
July 26 |
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New Home Sales - June |
605K |
610 |
612 |
|
FMOC |
1.125% |
1.125 |
1.125 |
|
July 27 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
240K |
233 |
240 |
|
Durable Goods Orders - June |
2.8% |
-0.8 |
3.2 |
|
International Trade in Goods - May |
-$65.0B |
-65.9 |
-65.0 |
|
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June |
0.0 |
-0.26 |
0.10 |
|
July 28 |
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GDP - Q2 (a) |
2.6% |
1.4 |
2.6 |
|
GDP Implicit Price Deflator |
1.2 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
|
Employment Cost Index - Q2 |
0.5% |
0.8 |
0.6 |
|
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y |
2.3 |
2.4 |
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (r) |
93.1 |
93.1 |
93.1 |
|
Week of July 31 |
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July 31 |
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Chicago PMI - July |
62.0 |
65.7 |
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Pending Home Sale Index - June |
109.5 |
108.5 |
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
14.0 |
15.0 |
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August 1 |
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Auto Sales* - July |
16.7M |
16.51 |
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Car Sales |
6.0 |
5.91 |
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Truck Sales |
10.7 |
10.59 |
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*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence |
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Personal Income - June |
0.4% |
0.4 |
||
Personal Spending |
0.1 |
0.1 |
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ISM (Mfg) - July |
56.0 |
57.8 |
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Construction Spending - June |
0.4% |
0.0 |
||
August 2 |
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ADP Employment Report - July |
175K |
158 |
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August 3 |
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ISM Services - July |
56.8 |
57.4 |
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Factory Orders - June |
1.1% |
-0.8 |
||
Durable Goods Orders |
2.8 |
-0.8 |
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August 4 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls - July |
180K |
222 |
||
Private |
175 |
187 |
||
Manufacturing |
2 |
1 |
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Unemployment |
4.3% |
4.4 |
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Average Workweek |
34.4HR |
34.5 |
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Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.2 |
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International Trade - June |
-$45.3B |
-46.5 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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