Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of Jan. 22 And Jan. 29
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of January 22 |
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January 22 |
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index |
0.25 |
0.15 |
0.25 |
|
January 23 |
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Richmond Fed Index |
18 |
20 |
18 |
|
January 24 |
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FHFA Housing Market Index - November |
0.4% |
0.5 |
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PMI Manufacturing Flash Index - January |
54.5 |
55.0 |
55.0 |
|
PMI Services Flash Index - January |
54.2 |
53.7 |
54.0 |
|
Existing Home Sales - December |
5.600M |
5.810 |
5.750 |
|
January 25 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
250K |
220 |
240 |
|
International Trade in Goods- December |
-$69.0B |
-70.0 |
-68.9 |
|
Wholesale Inventories (a) |
0.3% |
0.8 |
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New Home Sales - December |
650K |
733 |
683 |
|
Leading Indicators |
0.3% |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
14 |
14 |
14 |
|
January 26 |
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GDP - Q4 (a) |
3.0% |
3.2 |
2.9 |
|
GDP Implicit Price Deflator |
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Durable Goods Orders - December |
0.9% |
1.3 |
0.8 |
|
Week of January 29 |
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January 29 |
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Personal Income - December |
0.2% |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
Personal Spending |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
|
PCE Price Index |
0.2 |
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Core PCE Price Index |
0.1 |
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Real Personal Spending |
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
25.5 |
29.7 |
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January 30 |
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S&P Case/Shiller Index - November |
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Twenty City M/M |
0.0% |
0.2 |
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Twenty City M/M - SA |
0.7 |
0.7 |
||
Twenty City Y/Y |
6.4% |
6.4 |
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Consumer Confidence |
122.1 |
122.1 |
122.4 |
|
January 31 |
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ADP Employment Survey - January |
195 |
250 |
173 |
|
Employment Cost Index - Q4 |
0.5% |
0.7 |
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Employment Cost Index - Y/Y |
2.5 |
2.5 |
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Chicago PMI - January |
63.9 |
67.6 |
||
Pending Home Sales - December |
109.5 |
109.5 |
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FMOC |
1.375% |
1.375 |
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February 1 |
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Auto Sales* - January |
17.6M |
17.85 |
17.5 |
|
Car Sales |
6.2 |
6.09 |
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Truck Sales |
11.6 |
11.76 |
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*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence |
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Productivity - Q4 (p) |
1.2% |
3.0 |
1.9 |
|
Unit Labor Costs |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
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PMI Manufacturing Index - January |
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ISM (Mfg) - January |
59.2 |
59.7 |
58.9 |
|
ISM Prices |
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Construction Spending - January |
0.4% |
0.8 |
0.4 |
|
February 2 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls - January |
200K |
148 |
163 |
|
Private |
195 |
146 |
163 |
|
Manufacturing |
22 |
25 |
17 |
|
Unemployment |
4.1% |
4.1 |
4.1 |
|
Average Workweek |
34.5HR |
34.5 |
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Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services |
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f) |
94.4 |
94.4 |
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Factory Orders - December |
0.7% |
1.3 |
0.7 |
|
Durable Goods Orders |
0.9 |
1.3 |
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Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.5 |
1.4 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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