Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks May 1 And May 8
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
||||
Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
||
Week of May 1 |
||||
May 1 |
||||
Personal Income - March |
0.3% |
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
Personal Spending |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
ISM (Mfg) - April |
56.6 |
57.2 |
56.5 |
|
ISM Prices |
70.5 |
|||
Construction Spending - March |
0.5% |
0.8 |
0.5 |
|
May 2 |
||||
Auto Sales* - April |
17.1M |
16.56 |
17.2 |
|
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence |
||||
May 3 |
||||
ADP Employment Report - April |
190K |
263 |
170 |
|
PMI Services Index |
52.5 |
52.5 |
52.3 |
|
ISM Services - April |
55.9 |
55.2 |
55.8 |
|
FMOC Announcement |
0.875% |
0.875 |
0.875 |
|
May 4 |
||||
Initial Jobless Claims |
247 |
257 |
246 |
|
International Trade - March |
-$44.0B |
-43.5 |
-44.5 |
|
Productivity - Q1 (p) |
-0.6% |
1.3 |
0.0 |
|
Unit Labor Costs |
3.1 |
1.7 |
2.5 |
|
Factory Orders - March |
0.3% |
1.0 |
0.4 |
|
Durable Goods Orders |
0.7 |
1.8 |
||
Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.2 |
0.2 |
||
May 5 |
||||
Nonfarm Payrolls - April |
195K |
98 |
185 |
|
Private |
190 |
89 |
180 |
|
Manufacturing |
10 |
11 |
12.5 |
|
Unemployment |
4.5% |
4.5 |
4.6 |
|
Average Workweek |
34.4HR |
34.3 |
34.4 |
|
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.2 |
0.3 |
|
Consumer Credit - March |
$16.0B |
15.2 |
15.6 |
|
Week of May 8 |
||||
May 9 |
||||
Wholesale Inventories - March |
0.0% |
0.2 |
||
May 10 |
||||
Export Prices - April |
0.1% |
0.2 |
||
Import Prices |
0.2 |
-0.2 |
||
Treasury Budget - April |
175.8 |
176.2 |
||
May 11 |
||||
Producer Price Index - April |
0.2% |
-0.1 |
||
PPI less food, energy and trade services |
0.2 |
0.1 |
||
May 12 |
||||
Consumer Price Index - April |
0.3% |
-0.3 |
||
Core CPI |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
||
Retail Sales - April |
0.4% |
-0.2 |
||
Retail Sales, ex Autos |
0.3 |
0 |
||
Retail Sales,ex autos and gas |
0.3 |
0.3 |
||
Business Inventories - March |
0.1% |
0.3 |
||
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - May (p) |
98.0 |
97.0 |
||
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
more