Even before the my polling station opened today, I had the privilege of being on Bloomberg Surveillance today with Gina Cervetti and Tom Keene.  

We talk about a wide range of issues directly and tangentially related to the US election. We discuss the outcome the market appears to be discounting.We talk about peso's strength, which began in the second half of last week, before the FBI dropped its recent look at Clinton's email. The nine-day slide in the S&P 500 may have been aggravated by the tightening of some polls, but there were other factors at work.  

I also suggest the Fed funds futures, which were rock solid in recent weeks, despite the vagaries of the polls, points to a low level of concern that Trump would win.  A Trump victory would be a surprise, and the people he would surround himself with and the policies he would pursue, are significantly less known that Clinton. This, as well as what investors do know, means that a Trump victory could potentially destabilize the capital markets. In turn, the destabilization of the markets would likely see the odds of a December hike downgraded.  

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