U.S. Dollar Rollercoaster: Greenback Records Sixth Drop In Seven Days

It has been a volatile six weeks for the U.S. dollar. After rebounding from four-month lows, the U.S. currency has declined in six of the past seven sessions. The declines accelerated on Tuesday as geopolitical risks and a surging British pound weighed on the world’s most popular currency.

The dollar index, a weighted average of the greenback against a basket of six peers, fell 0.8% to 99.50 on Tuesday. That was the lowest level in three weeks and the sixth drop in seven days. The greenback has declined over 1.5% during that period.

Prior to the decline, the dollar was trading at nearly one-month highs, as markets consolidated in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s March decision to raise interest rates.

The selloff on Tuesday was stoked by the British pound, which rose to yearly highs after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May called for a snap election on June 8.

Explaining the decision, May said, “The country is coming together but Westminster is not.”[1]

The snap election could strengthen May’s mandate to negotiate a hard Brexit with the European Union (EU). The U.K. officially launched the Brexit process on March 29.

The pound rose more than 2% against the dollar on Tuesday.

The dollar was also down half a percent versus the yen and euro.

Prior to the latest slide, the dollar was pressured by a gold rush as investors sought reprieve from geopolitical tensions stemming from Syria and North Korea. Gold and silver prices soared to fresh five-month highs last week, which triggered a large reversal for the greenback.

Gold and silver are priced in dollars and therefore trade inversely with the U.S. currency. This has been especially the case for the last two-and-a-half years, a period characterized by a strong dollar and weak precious metals.

The outlook on the greenback hinges on U.S. monetary policy and perceived geopolitical risks. Although the dollar is widely regarded as a global safe-haven asset, it is less attractive than gold as a hedge against inflation and political uncertainty.

On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve will hold its next meeting May 2-3. However, interest rates are expected to remain on hold until the summer, according to the CME Group’s 30-day Fed Fund futures prices.[2]

Central bankers continue to forecast three rate hikes this year. With one down, that leaves two more likely moves in the balance of the year.

The Fed is anticipating a gradual rise in inflation, but says underlying growth will remain capped at around 2% annually through 2019. That contrasts significantly with President Trump’s pledge to grow the economy more than 4%.

[1] BBC (April 18, 2017). “Theresa May to seek general election on 8 June.”

[2] CME Group. FedWatch Tool.

Disclosure: None.

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.