The Fed will release the minutes of the May 2 FOMC meeting (18:00 GMT), when the committee left the target rate at an unchanged 1.50% to 1.75%. In recent months Fed officials have consistently been highlighting the positive economic outlook and progress on the inflation side. The minutes should echo this tone, thus corroborating the notion of further gradual rate hikes. We – and financial markets – expect the next 25bp rate hike to come at the upcoming meeting in mid-June.

This is how MyFXspot.com trades today:

EUR/USD
Trading strategy: Short
Open: 1.1790
Target: 1.1710
Stop-loss: 1.1790 (lowered from 1.1830)
Recommended size: 5.00 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: EUR/USD closed below the 1.1790 Fibo on Friday, 76.4% retrace of the 1.1555 to 1.2555 (November to February) gain and the next support level is 1.1709 Fibo, 38.2% retrace of the wider (2017-2018) 1.0340 to 1.2555 rise. We are getting closer to our target. If the target is reached, another short position could be too risky at current levels.

GBP/USD
Trading strategy: Await signal
Open: -
Target: -
Stop-loss: -
Recommended size: -
Short analysis: The situation here is similar to EUR/USD pair. But recent comments from Monetary Policy Committee member Gertjan Vlieghe are worth mentioning. He said he expected slightly more interest rate increases over the next three years than the market assumption of just under three 25 basis-point hikes. GBP/USD bears should be cautious after his hawkish speech.


USD/JPY
Trading strategy: Short
Open: 110.90
Target: 109.10
Stop-loss: 111.60
Recommended size: 3.17 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: We opened USD/JPY short, just after the pair reached key 110.85 Fibo level, 61.8% retrace of the 114.73 104.56 (November to March) fall. The target is 109.10.

USD/CAD
Trading strategy: Await signal
Open: -
Target: -
Stop-loss: -
Recommended size: -
Short analysis: The CAD edged lower against the USD, pulling back from an earlier 11-day high as NAFTA trade pact uncertainty offset higher oil prices and stronger-than-expected domestic wholesale trade data. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Monday said major issues remained in talks. In our opinion there are too many risk factors here (NAFTA, BoC decision after lower-than-expected inflation data) to open a new trade.
                                                                                                                     
AUD/USD
Trading strategy: Long
Open: 0.7555
Target: 0.7800
Stop-loss: 0.7420
Recommended size: 1.48 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: The long lower wick on the monthly candle is encouraging. Commodity currencies strengthened perceptibly against the dollar on Monday, but the move is not continued today. We do not see any reasons to change our AUD/USD trading strategy.
 
EUR/GBP
Trading strategy: Long
Open: 0.8780
Target: 0.8960
Stop-loss: 0.8690
Recommended size: 1.22 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: EUR/GBP broke above 7-day exponential moving average. We remain long.