Clinton Wins Debate – Markets Cheer, USD/JPY Rises

Hillary Clinton gave a solid performance in the first presidential debate, while Trump couldn’t keep up and lacked any “presidential” style. Instant polls gave Clinton a 2:1 victory on the question: who won the debate? This was not totally unexpected but anything can happen in 90 uninterrupted minutes. A few punchlines such as saying she prepared for the debate and is ready for the presidency trumped her opponent which battled the moderator and seemed angry.

Markets usually prefer a Republican pro-business and pro-market candidate. However, Trump is anti-trade and very unpredictable, while Clinton is mainstream. Clinton Continuation vs. Donald Disruption. The tightening of the polls towards Trump was worrying in recent weeks. And while full results of the debate impact will be seen in polls only on Thursday onwards, the polls rating the debate and the analysts give a clear verdict. And markets are cheering.

Here is the instant poll on the debate:

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USD/JPY was getting close to 100 last night, and it is now touching 101. The yen is a safe-haven currency and at the moment, there’s no need to run to the hills.

Also, the Mexican Peso enjoyed a big (or “bigly”) rise. There has been some negative correlation between the currency of the southern neighbor and Trump, who talked about building a wall between the countries.

Here is the dollar/yen chart. We explained why it could gain before the debate, and see the outcome afterward.

usdjpy-rises-on-clinton-debate-victory-september-27

 

Disclosure: None.

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Yohay Elam 7 months ago Author's comment

Thanks for your comments. It is isn't only the CNN poll but also the reaction in financial markets and the analysis of pundits, which has an influence as well. The critical question is: did the debate move voting intentions? We will get post-debate polls tomorrow and throughout the weekend. The race is certainly close.

BreakingBad News 7 months ago Member's comment

Saying that #Hillary won is very subjective. Stating CNN's poll is kind of pointless since even they admit it was mostly made up of Democrats and the typical CNN reader is a Hillary supporter. Most polls I've seen state #Trump won. But the only poll that matters is on election day.

Currency Trader 7 months ago Member's comment

I have to agree. CNN gave #Hillary the lead, but Time Magazine gave 60% to #Trump. Drudge Report gave over 80% to Trump. Over all, most polls did say Trump was the victor. Here's a good roundup:

www.dailymail.co.uk/.../...g-debate-landslide.html

Cynthia Decker 7 months ago Member's comment

Thanks for the link. I had thought it was a draw. I can't believe that almost every poll says that #Trump won the debate! God help us!

Angry Old Lady 7 months ago Member's comment

Your bias is clearly evident. Though I'm not supporting #Trump, I thought he dominated the debate and was disappointed that #Hillary appeared robotic and lacked any of her fire. I hope she'll fare better at the next one.