Will A Predicted Gold Price Drop In 2017 Make It A Good Time To Buy?

The price of gold has plunged since late October, but most that decline came following the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the US. And while this could have been nothing more than a coincidence, the subsequent resurgence of the US stock market and the strengthening of the USD suggest that more declines for the yellow metal could be around the corner.

As such, investors will be ready to pounce once that happens, and they could do that in several ways. They could buy gold stocks, trade the yellow metal, or it could be a good time to turn your IRA into gold. After all, one of the world’s oldest investing philosophies to buy when the prices are low.  So, let’s examine whether 2017 will be a perfect opportunity to invest in the precious metals market via gold.

The spot gold prices in the futures market dropped to $1,160 level on Tuesday, which is the lowest level since January this year, and judging by the current momentum, they could fall further through Q1 next year. From a technical perspective, the price of the yellow metal has reached a critical support level, as demonstrated in the chart below, which suggests that if the prices do not rebound from this level, then the decline from thereon could be massive.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Analysts are predicting that the price of gold could easily hit the lows witnessed late last year when it came close to trading below the $1,000 level since breaking the threshold during the global financial crises of 2008/2009. In fact, some reports already predict that the yellow metal will drop below the $1,000 level in 2017, for the first time in nearly 9 years.

A downward breakout from the current resistance zone of $1,150-$1,200 would set a target of $1,050-$1,075. At this level, the price of gold will be locked in a range it during Q4 in 2015.

At the time, there was a high expectation on the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which from an investing perspective makes the stock market more attractive and the USD stronger. Both scenarios are counteractive to the value of gold bullion.

Right now, the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for the first time in 2016 next week, which again is expected to affect the price of gold. And while the market seemed set for at least a couple of hikes this year, the Federal committee has maintained caution all through with one last opportunity remaining.

Now, if this happens, the price of gold could follow a similar trend to that witnessed last year, with a significant decline shortly after the hike, and then a resurgence through the second half of 2017.

However, things in 2017 might be a little different from 2016. First, there is a high expectation that current Fed chair Janet Yellen could resign from office a couple of years before the end of her current term to pave the way for trump to fill the position with his own appointee.

Trump has been quoted on several occasions questioning why the US base interest rates had to be so low, yet the economy appears to be doing well. Therefore, we could end up having a couple of rate hikes, or even more in 2017, which again could be harmful to the price of gold.

Conclusion

It’s clear why some analysts believe that the yellow metal could drop to the lowest point in nearly 9 years. This would present the perfect opportunity to buy gold in whatever form you prefer to invest in.

And as this Quora user points out, once you identify an entry point for buying gold, your goal should always be long-term. As such, it sounds perfect to have a gold IRA, especially if the timing is right, and 2017 appears to be surrounded by potential circumstances that could make it just right.

Disclosure: The material appearing on this article is based on data and information from sources I believe to be accurate and reliable. However, the material is not guaranteed as to accuracy nor ...

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Gary Anderson 7 years ago Contributor's comment

It will be interesting to see if rate hikes fail to affect the long end. I think that is likely. JMO.